Friday’s MLB Prop Bet covers the night games, kicking off at 6:40 p.m. ET. All these MLB Picks can be located on DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking on the headline for the bet.
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MLB Prop Bets for Friday, May 16, 2025
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays over 4.5 runs through the first five innings -110
I’m expecting significant offensive output early from both the Tigers and Blue Jays. Jack Flaherty and Bowden Francis will take the mound for their respective teams in this game.
Flaherty has struggled as expected, with a 4.61 ERA, closely matched by an xERA of 4.68 and a 4.61 FIP. His strikeout numbers remain strong, but his walks have increased, and his home runs allowed have risen sharply. Flaherty has surrendered nine home runs this season through 41 innings, compared to 24 through 162 innings last season. The primary issue is Flaherty’s four-seam fastball, against which opposing hitters are batting .309 (xBA of .342) with a .415 wOBA. The Blue Jays’ expected lineup for tonight has performed well against this pitch since last season, posting a combined .325 wOBA and a .181 ISO.
Francis continues to struggle with home runs, having allowed a league-leading 12 among starting pitchers this season. His 5.40 ERA is overshadowed by a 6.25 xERA, indicating he’s performed even worse than his surface numbers suggest. The Tigers’ offense is surging, averaging 6.8 runs per game over their last five games.
This game features two players I like to hit a home run for the King of the Diamond promotion on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can read my King of the Diamond Picks on DraftKings Network.
Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases -110
It’s another day of targeting the Angels in some form. I don’t mind taking the over on the Dodgers’ team total, which is currently set at 5.5 runs with -125 odds. The Angels will start Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 5.23 ERA, a 4.80 xERA, and a 5.56 FIP. He relies on contact for outs, as shown by his 5.02 K/9. Kochanowicz primarily throws a sinker, which accounts for 44% of his pitches. He may want to reconsider this approach, as opposing hitters have a .299 batting average against it, with a .361 wOBA and four of the seven home runs he has allowed. Freeman has excelled against this pitch, posting a .440 wOBA and a .185 ISO.
MacKenzie Gore over 6.5 strikeouts -115
The Orioles have been one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching, according to wRC+. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is an advanced hitting statistic that measures offensive productivity relative to the league average, accounting for park factors and league-wide trends. An average wRC+ is 100, but the Orioles have a wRC+ of 50 against left-handed pitchers. They also have one of the highest strikeout percentages (K%) against left-handed pitchers at 25.4%. Gore has seen a significant increase in his strikeout rate, rising from 9.7 K/9 last season to 12.8 K/9 this year. In seven of his nine starts, he has logged at least seven strikeouts. Against a struggling Orioles offense, Gore is likely to exceed seven strikeouts again.
MLB Total Bases Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Good luck with these MLB picks tonight!
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