Few things in this life are as great as a Friday night in the summer. You’re at the farthest possible point from having to go back to work and there’s 100% baseball on the television. I think that’s truly my version of heaven. As long as we’re fantasizing, let’s throw in a couple winning bets, right? As if things couldn’t get any better.
Well, I’m here to try and turn that dream into reality. Here are my top MLB bets for today’s 15-game slate.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies -1.5 (-112)
There was a point earlier on in 2025 when it looked like the Pirates might get a haul for Andrew Heaney at the trade deadline. That time has passed. Don’t get me wrong, the soon-to-be 34-year-old will still have his moments, but Heaney has looked absolutely awful in his past three starts. In the 14.1 innings the lefty has thrown since April 29, Heaney has amassed a grotesque 8.33 FIP, thanks primarily to surrendering four home runs in the span and walking twice as many batters (10) as he’s struck out (5). That is some next-level pitcher struggles and things won’t get easier on Friday with the Phillies as his opponent. Philadelphia sports a healthy 116 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, we find Ranger Suarez. The veteran lefty was BABIP’d to death in his first start off the IL against the Diamondbacks, but Suarez showed his mettle last Saturday in Cleveland, tossing seven scoreless innings versus the Guardians. That’s the version of Suarez that I expect we’ll see more often than not. It certainly helps that Pittsburgh has been unable to do anything when facing-off with LHPs in 2025. To wit, the Pirates rank 26th in ISO (.100) and wRC+ (70) within the split. Suarez should breeze through this lineup, while Heaney gets rocked by the Phillies.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Rockies ML (+330)
Look, you don’t have to go down this path with me. I gave you a perfectly reasonable bet on the Phillies’ run line. You could just do that and not have to worry about who Carson Palmquist is ever again. That said, I’m of the belief that there should never be a +300 underdog in MLB. This is baseball we’re talking about. Even the worst teams win about 40% of the time.
Granted, the Rockies are a special kind of terrible. At 7-36, Colorado has won only 16.3% of its games this season — a far worse pace than the White Sox in 2024, who finished that season with 121 losses. Yet Palmquist hasn’t been around for any of that. The 24-year-old has made seven starts in Triple-A in 2025, pitching to a 3.82 ERA and a 30.2% strikeout rate. The former third-round pick is ranked as the Rockies’ sixth-best prospect by FanGraphs and the ninth-best by MLB Pipeline. It’s not like he’s coming out of absolute obscurity to make his debut on Friday. There’s some real pedigree with the left-hander.
It’s also not like the Diamondbacks are the 1927 Yankees. Arizona has dropped five of its last 10 games and has a negative run differential for the season as a whole (-4). The Diamondbacks have struggled with southpaws, as well, coming into this matchup with a .124 ISO and a 93 wRC+ within the split. Is it likely they’ll emerge victorious tonight? Of course. However, sitting at -425 on the moneyline is lunacy.
