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MLB Best Bets: Top Starting Pitcher Prop Bets for Friday 5/16/25

MLB Best Bets: Top Starting Pitcher Prop Bets for Friday 5/16/25

Published:

By: Zach Thompson

All 30 Major League Baseball teams are in action Friday to start off Rivalry Weekend. After the Cubs and White Sox start things early at Wrigley, the rest of the 28 teams play under the lights, giving us 28 starting pitchers to break down as we look for the top starting pitcher prop bets in Friday night’s action. My top three for the night include plays from Andrew Heaney, MacKenzie Gore and Stephen Kolek.

Every day of the season, DraftKings Sportsbook offers multiple ways to get in on the action with player props, moneylines and picks against the spread from each MLB contest. You can also pick series winners, award winners and team futures as well, so be sure to check out all the options available on the MLB page of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Here is a look at my top starting pitcher prop bets for this Friday night.


Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook

Andrew Heaney under 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

Heaney has been a very solid surprise for the Pirates this season, going 2-3 with a 3.15 ERA, 4.19 FIP and 1.12 WHIP. However, after a strong start to the season in the strikeout category, the veteran lefty has faded in his last few outings.

He only has a total of five strikeouts in his last five starts over 14 1/3 innings. He has been under this total in four of his last five starts, with the only exception coming agianst the whiff-happy Angels in Anaheim.

The Phillies do have a lefty-heavy lineup, but they only have a 20.8% strikeout rate on the season overall and a 23.9% strikeout rate against lefties. Both numbers are in the middle third of the league, right around the league average.

With Heaney’s strikeouts slowing down and the Phillies’ overall effectiveness, I don’t think he’ll be around long enough to get five strikeouts in this Keystone State rivalry.


MacKenzie Gore 7+ strikeouts (-105)

Gore and the Nationals are taking on the Orioles in Baltimore in the Battle of the Beltway this weekend. Gore should be in a great strikeout spot since the Orioles rank third overall in MLB in strikeout rate and seventh against southpaws.

The left hander has 75 strikeouts in his nine starts (8.3 strikeouts per start) and has at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven outings, coming up just one short in his other start against the Phillies.

He’ll be facing the O’s for a second time this season and had eight strikeouts in six innings against them in a loss in late April. Gore has had a few more control issues in his last two outings, but he usually manages to get enough strikeouts to go over this total. Especially with a favorable matchup with the Orioles, this strikeout line is one of my top starting pitcher prop bets for Friday.


Stephen Kolek to record a win (+145)

Kolek has been excellent in his first two outings for the Padres and will look to keep rolling in this start at home against Seattle. Several things have to go right for pitchers to get a win, and they need help from their bullpen and their starting lineup.

Kolek has gotten that help in his first two games of the season and has yet to allow a run in 14 1/3 innings at the MLB level. I highlighted him as a top waiver wire add when he was first promoted, and he has delivered so far. He has given up just nine hits and four walks while striking out 11. He shut out the Pirates and Rockies on the road, so this will be his toughest test to date.

In his last start, the lineup gave him plenty of back up by dropping 21 runs against the Rockies at Coors Field, while Kolek threw a complete game shutout. He should get good run support again in this one, since the Padres have a good matchup against Logan Evans, who has allowed 11 runs in 15 innings this season.

The Padres are 16-5 at home and just took two of three from the Angels. The Mariners are 10-8 on the road this year and just lost five of six games in their homestand against the Blue Jays and Yankees.

It looks like a great spot to back Kolek to grab a win at plus money to wrap up my staring pitcher prop bets for the night.

Zach has been part of the DraftKings team since 2017 and covers baseball, basketball, golf, football and any other sport that offers DFS fun. He has been playing fantasy sports since box scores were only available in the newspaper the following day. Even though he grew up almost 8,000 miles away in Guam, he is a diehard Boston sports fan but will take a fantasy value play wherever he can get it, even if it’s from the Yankees.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.