The Panthers have won three straight games vs. the Maple Leafs and now lead the series, 3-2, heading into tonight’s Game 6 matchup at home. Coming off a dominant 6-1 Game 5 win, Florida is a heavy -240 favorite on the Moneyline tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at O/U 5.5 goals with both Sergei Bobrovsky and Joseph Woll expected to start between the pipes.
Below, I’ve provided a preview of Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 6 as well as my top prediction and pick. Can Florida advance to its third straight Eastern Conference Finals? Let’s get into it.
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Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 6 preview, prediction
While Toronto had momentum at the beginning of the series, this team has looked like a shell of itself since losing in overtime in Game 3. The Maple Leafs have been outscored 8-to-1 in the past two games and now face a series deficit for the first time this postseason. Anthony Stolarz is unlikely to suit up tonight, leaving Woll to start for the fifth straight game. Woll has been flat-out bad in this series, posting a .877 save percentage to go along with a 4.02 GAA. He is also the third-worst goaltender this postseason in terms of goals saved above expected, only ahead of Connor Hellebuyck and Adin Hill.
Game 5 was historic for the Panthers as 14 different skaters recorded a point, which set a franchise postseason record. Bobrovsky has returned to elite form over the past three games, posting a .942 save percentage and 1.54 GAA, and the offense is generating high-quality chances. This postseason, the Panthers rank fifth in both 5v5 goal percentage and 5v5 high-danger chances, and it’s shown this series with their average of four goals per game. Florida has received production from everywhere while limiting Toronto’s lethal attack and especially power play unit. In the first round, the Leafs converted 35% of their power play opportunities but that percentage has dropped to just 11% against the Panthers. Pair below-average goaltending with below-average offense and the blown 2-0 series lead starts to make more sense.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 6 pick, best bet
The Leafs may have had momentum at the start of the series but no more. The defending Stanley Cup champions have found their postseason groove the last few games and it’s not going to stop in front of the home crowd with a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Florida has the edge in virtually everything from goaltending and defense to goalscoring and special teams. This does admittedly feel a bit like a trap game with 73% of the bets on Panthers Moneyline (-240) but they’re the more experienced team and will carry the momentum from Game 5 into tonight. If you’ve followed my bets throughout the playoffs, you’d know I rarely give out boring and juiced picks, so let’s fade the Moneyline and attack the Puck Line at plus-odds.
