Rivalry Weekend rages on in Ohio! The Guardians and Reds face off tonight at Great American Ball Park, and interstate bragging rights are absolutely on the line this weekend. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Reds and the Guardians.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Reds vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Tanner Bibee stalks the bump for Cleveland. His 3.80 ERA and 6.2 K/9 are respectable, but his 1.22 WHIP and .229 BAA tell the story of a pitcher who can be hit. Bibee has shown some of his early-days solid command recently, but he’s faced teams with less pop than the Reds have. Still, it’d be fair to assume he could navigate through this struggling Reds offense, which has is in the middle of a rut so deep it’s a gully. Bibee’s ability to limit walks (just 2.3 per 9 innings) gives him a chance to control the pace, but his 1.58 HR/9 could be a vulnerability against a team like the Reds, who have power at the plate.
Opposing him is Brady Singer, who has a 4.97 ERA this season. Singer hasn’t been start-to-start reliable, with a 1.32 WHIP and .256 BAA; his stuff doesn’t match up against above-league-average offenses. His fastball is hittable, and his recent outing—seven earned runs allowed in 2.1 innings against Houston—is a prime example of the extremities of his volatility. Singer’s 5.6 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 flat-out stink, and match up poorly especially against a team like the Guardians, who take disciplined at-bats and are patient at the plate.
While the Guardians rank 18th in runs per game (4.09), their offense has been efficient when it counts. Jose Ramirez is on fire, batting .295 with eight HRs and 22 RBIs. Ramirez’s hot streak sears on with a .361 average over his last 10 games, including three home runs and seven RBIs. Steven Kwan is ever the anchor atop the order with that .325 average, and a team-leading OBP. However, Cleveland’s overall slugging rate of .381 remains subpar.
The Reds, while vastly underperforming, still have offensive pieces capable of explosive performances at any time. Elly De La Cruz leads the team with eight home runs, 31 RBIs, and 14 steals, hitting .286 in his last five games. His power and speed combination can punish any and all mistakes by pitchers/defenses. TJ Friedl, with his .274 average and eight steals, and Spencer Steer, who has four home runs, add depth to a lineup that could catch fire in totality from just the slightest spark.
Guardians vs. Reds pick, best bet
While Brady Singer may give up some runs, Cincinnati’s bullpen—sixth in WHIP (1.18)—has been reliable in high-leverage spots. They’ve been 64.7% successful in save opportunities, which speaks to their ability to close out games, even if the starting pitcher stumbles.
Both teams have had to lean too heavily on their pitching staffs in the early goings of the 2025 campaign. While the Guardians are likely to come out ahead, the Reds have a decent recent pedigree against AL teams, winning five of their last seven home games against AL opponents. Combine that with Singer’s volatility, taking Cleveland -120 may be the safer bet, but the over nine runs offers value as both teams are capable of scoring.
The Guardians have been on a real tear recently, but Bibee’s first visit to Great American Ball Park won’t come without challenges. Expect a game that stays close, especially late. Still—Guardians ML and the over 9.0 runs are the plays.
Best bet: Guardians (-120) at Reds
Cleveland stays hot on the road—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
Total lean: Reds vs. Guardians over 9.0 runs (-105)
Something has to break eventually on the scoreboard for the Reds, right?
