The Cubs and White Sox meet today for a fierce intercity matchup at Wrigley Field. And for what’s a stark mismatch on paper, the winds might be blowing south tomorrow. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Cubs and the White Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Cade Horton, the Cubs’ young starter, makes his first start of the season. To plenty of Chicago ballyhoo of his own, mind you. His 6.75 ERA in limited appearances doesn’t scream good-faith investment. However, against a White Sox offense ranked last in OPS (.616) and batting average (.214), Horton could find comfort and rhythm. His fastball and slider, backed by a strikeout rate of 11.3 K/9, give him a good chance to settle into his role. Still, this is a rookie’s first start—there’s always uncertainty, and so much risk for volatility.
On the flip side, Shane Smith has been a revelation for the White Sox. With a 2.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 43 innings, Smith has kept hitters at bay. His 2.53 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .205 BAA mean he’s a tough pitcher to crack. While the White Sox’s offense has faltered, Smith’s consistency in keeping games tight gives them a chance. The Cubs’ offense, led by Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki, is explosive but hasn’t been consistently dominant against right-handed pitchers. Smith’s ground-ball approach and solid strikeout rate should keep this one close. Pete Crow-Armstrong should still be able to get his barrel on one or two, create some havoc on the basepaths so that North-Siders stay competitive.
The Cubs’ recent form looks pretty ugly. A 4-6 record in their last 10 games has really set them straight. They’ve been inconsistent both at home and away recently, despite their explosive offense. They’ve been prone to underperforming against pitchers with solid command of the strike zone, like Smith. That, paired with a bullpen ranking 22nd in ERA (4.59), gives the White Sox an opening to stay competitive. The Cubs rank 12th in team batting average (.250) and third in home runs (63) but have struggled to get timely hits in some recent contests. Their bullpen has allowed 177 earned runs, ranking 18th in ERA.
White Sox vs. Cubs pick, best bet
The White Sox, despite their poor season, have covered +1.5 in 13 of 22 road games, making them a valuable spread pick. Smith’s ability to keep the Cubs off the scoreboard for long stretches makes +1.5 worth considering here. The White Sox bullpen, while shaky, has shown slight improvement with a 3.21 ERA in day games this season, and they’ve shown the ability to keep games within striking distance.
The Cubs have hit the over 26 times in 44 games this season, but the White Sox have struggled with their offense. They rank 28th in runs per game (3.4) and 29th in batting average. Still, they can find ways to push across a few runs against Horton, who has allowed 9.0+ hits per 9 innings this season. Both bullpens are underperforming, ranking in the bottom third of the league for ERA. Expect the total to hit over 11.5, especially with both teams likely to struggle to keep each other off the board late in the game.
