Remember that 2019 film Gemini Man? The one that no one saw where Will Smith fights a younger, cloned version of himself? That’s all I can think about when I see tonight’s pitching matchup in Boston. Chris Sale, left-handed fire-baller and former first-round pick of the White Sox, will return to Boston, where he was once traded by Chicago, to square-off with Garrett Crochet, left-handed fire-baller and former first-round pick of the White Sox, who was traded to Boston by Chicago this past offseason. You picking up on some of the similarities?
Let’s preview this All-Star pitchers duel with the help of some lines and odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
As he is the prime version, let’s start the analysis with Sale. The 36-year-old didn’t have the best start to 2025, allowing at least three earned runs and not working into the sixth inning in his first four outings of the season. However, Sale was mostly getting BABIP’d to death, as his strikeout rate and walk rate remained elite in that stretch of time. As you would expect, things have turned since then, with Sale registering a 1.85 ERA and a 1.99 FIP over his last four starts — a span where opponents have still mustered a .361 BABIP. While the southpaw’s opponent barrel rate is a career-high (9.2%), this mostly just feels like a patch of unluckiness. Sale’s hard to hit. His 30.2% strikeout rate is the eighth-best qualified mark in MLB. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner will be fine.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like the Red Sox present an easy matchup for any pitcher, though Boston’s lineup has fared far better against RHPs so far in 2025. To wit, the Red Sox own a .173 ISO versus right-handers — the eighth-highest mark in baseball. When facing lefties, that figure falls to a much more underwhelming .145. It makes some sense. Boston relies on LHBs like Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu at the top of its lineup. Abreu currently sports a 65 wRC+ against left-handers. Duran is at a 46 wRC+. Woof.
Still, the main story of the Red Sox on Friday is the presence of Garrett Crochet. Boston is 6-3 when Crochet takes the mound in 2025, with the lefty has pitched to a sterling 1.93 ERA and 2.60 FIP. Crochet’s velocity is down a smidge from where it sat in his breakout 2024 campaign, as is his swinging strike rate, but these are simply nitpicks on what has been an amazing season. Only once in his nine outings has Crochet allowed more than two earned runs. That’s pretty damn good.
Braves vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
This has been a rough stretch for the Red Sox. After being swept by the Tigers earlier this week, Boston is back below the .500 mark, tied with the Blue Jays for second place in what has been an oddly mediocre AL East. Now the team will have to face a 2024 Cy Young award winner for the second game in a row.
I think the big storyline in this tilt has been Atlanta’s complete inability to hit LHPs in 2025. Ronald Acuna might be back in a couple weeks to save this lineup, but with Ozzie Albies not doing his usual damage as an RHB, the Braves have managed just a .204 average and a 70 wRC+ within the split — the fifth-lowest mark in MLB. I doubt things magically get better against one of the better southpaws in the sport.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-101)
Classic pitchers duel. It certainly helps that the Braves own just a 70 wRC+ against lefties in 2025.
Strong Lean: Garrett Crochet 18+ Outs Recorded (-165)
Crochet has accomplished this feat in five of his last eight starts.
