It’s get-away day in baseball with lots of afternoon action on the diamond to enjoy. One of those games will be the rubber match in a series between the Rays and the Blue Jays, with Tampa Bay coming back dramatically to take Tuesday’s contest in the ninth and Toronto riding a three-run Alejandro Kirk long ball to respond on Wednesday.
It’s been that kind of season for the Blue Jays, who are currently 21-21 and have not been above .500 since all the way back on April 21. Toronto’s also 5-5 in its last 10 games, though they’ve had the lead in the eighth inning or later in four of those losses. Look no further than Jeff Hoffman’s 6.05 ERA for confirmation about the recent heartbreak of Jays’ fans.
Let’s preview today’s 3:07 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some lines and odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
We’re in the midst of another weird season from Kevin Gausman. After a dip in average fastball velocity caused Gausman’s strikeout rate (21.4%) to fall and his xERA (4.71) to spike in 2024, the 34-year-old is back to roughly the same level of four-seam zip that allowed him to post amazing campaigns from 2021 to 2023. However, despite that, Gausman now isn’t getting the same elite whiff rate on his splitter. He’s only struck out 40 opponents in his 45.1 innings of work in 2025 and, while a 3.28 FIP is promising, the extra opponent contact has been worrisome. Gausman comes into Thursday’s outing with a career-high 12.2% opponent barrel rate.
Still, I’d have to give Gausman the edge in today’s pitching matchup, as Zack Littell essentially has all the same issues — just to a greater extent. Across eight starts and 47.0 innings, Littell combines a 22nd percentile xERA (4.80) with a 13th percentile strikeout rate (16.0%) and a 10th percentile opponent barrel rate (12.8%). As you might expect, that’s led to some problems with keeping the ball in the yard. Littell is one of seven pitchers this season to have already surrendered double-digit home runs (10), with RHBs averaging a whopping 2.10 long balls per nine against Tampa’s starter. That sound you just heard was Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer licking their chops.
Ironically, two weeks ago, the Blue Jays would’ve been the team least-likely to take advantage of Littell’s flaws, as they ranked towards the bottom of MLB in home runs and ISO. However, across the past 14 days, Toronto’s hitting .285 with a 127 wRC+ and a 172 ISO that sits seventh in the league. The lineup has found its power stroke.
Rays vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
After exploding for 11 runs on Tuesday, the Rays were back to their usual selves on Wednesday, picking up just a single run off Chris Bassitt and Toronto’s bullpen. It has been a serious struggle for Tampa Bay to score in 2025, as the team ranks dead-last in ISO (.099) and 28th in wRC+ (79) over the last 30 days. The fact that Yandy Diaz couldn’t cross the border to Canada certainly doesn’t help matters, either. I have my doubts that the Rays can keep pace in a contest where Littell will give up his fair share of runs.
Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
Toronto’s lineup is humming at the moment and Littell has some serious red flags.
Strong Lean: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Littell is allowing 2.10 home runs per nine to RHBs, while Vladdy is 3-for-5 off the right-hander in his career.
