There’s only two MLB games scheduled for Thursday night, but that won’t stop our never-ending quest for home runs. Here’s who I think has a chance to go deep tonight in Texas and Los Angeles.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+155)
Freddie Freeman is also a nice play at +290. Even Mookie Betts at +500. When it comes specifically to Ohtani, these might be the lowest home run odds I’ve even seen — but I get it. Ohtani is tied for the fourth-most long balls in baseball (13) and he ranks in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity (96.7), barrel rate (24.8%) and expected slugging percentage (.763). So, you know, he’s having a normal season by his standards. Then there’s the Osvaldo Bido element. Bido has been far more prone to giving up homers at Sutter Health Park in 2025, but that doesn’t change the fact that the right-hander is conceding a gargantuan 3.43 opponent home runs per nine across his last four outings. Yikes.
Tyler Soderstrom 1+ Home Run (+400)
What do we know about Matt Sauer? Well, the 26-year-old has pitched pretty well for the Dodgers so far in 2025, allowing just two earned runs over 11.2 innings of relief. That includes a 78-pitch outing back on April 29 against the Marlins, so it stands to reason that Los Angeles is expecting length out of Sauer on Thursday. We also know that Sauer surrendered 1.66 opponent long balls per nine across three levels and 48.2 innings in 2024. This isn’t the second coming of Roger Clemens. You can hit Sauer. Soderstrom can definitely hit Sauer. The Athletics’ first baseman comes into Thursday’s slate with a 91st percentile expected slugging percentage (.556) and a 90th percentile hard hit rate (52.0%). He’s got a .270 ISO against RHPs, too.
Victor Caratini 1+ Home Run (+750)
It’s a small slate. Let’s get weird. Unless Yordan Alvarez is activated off the IL prior to tonight’s game, the Astros will once again only have one left-handed bat in their lineup: The switch-hitting Caratini. Why is that important? Well, Jacob deGrom has allowed seven home runs so far in 2025. All seven have been hit by LHBs. In fact, deGrom is surrendering a staggering 2.59 long balls per nine to opposing lefties. This is certainly a long shot, but Caratini is backed up by the numbers.
