The Nuggets and Thunder go head-to-head for Game 6 of their second round series in Denver on Thursday.
Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 6 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
The Thunder have a chance to close out the Nuggets on Thursday, but most bettors are expecting Denver to even this series up at three wins apiece. For moneyline bets, 78% of the handle and 64% of the bets are on the Nuggets at +150. For spread bets, 63% of the handle and 63% of the bets are on Denver +4.5.
Despite Game 5 being in Oklahoma City, the Nuggets led for most of the contest and they led by as many as 14 points. They let the win slip away in the fourth quarter, but the Nuggets are now back at home for Game 6, where they are 30-17 this season. Plus, Denver is 5-3 ATS when competing as a home underdog. All in all, most of the money and bets being on the Nuggets is very logical, and tailing the public here is smart, whether it be on the moneyline or with the safer spread bet of +4.5.
The total for Game 6 is currently 217.5 points and most are backing the over, with 68% of the handle and 74% of the bets for the over. This is somewhat surprising given the last three games of this series have gone under 217.5 points, including a very low 179 total in Game 4. Denver plays much better defense at home and Oklahoma City’s offense has struggled in Denver’s high altitude this series, so going with the under here is the better call. With most of the money and bets on the over, this number could move up to 218 points before tipoff, so waiting until near game-time to attack the under is smart, if interested in this wager.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-145)
- Luguentz Dort Under 2.5 Made Three Pointers (-180)
- Isaiah Hartenstein 20+ Points + Rebounds (-160)
- Nikola Jokic 30+ Points (+105)
- Nikola Jokic to be 1st Point Scorer (+500)
Gilgeous-Alexander for over 12.5 rebounds + assists is the most bet player prop for Game 6 and is a logical bet with this likely to be a competitive affair throughout. He should approach 40 minutes with the Thunder looking to advance. However, Gilgeous-Alexander has stayed under 12.5 RA in five of his nine starts this postseason. The under for this prop carries +114 odds, while the over carries heavily favored -145 odds. With this being a bet that easily could go either direction, chasing the under at the much more appealing price is the better gamble.
Dort for under 2.5 made three pointers at a heavily favorited -180 price is the second-most bet player prop for Game 6. These -180 odds aren’t ideal, but this a very safe bet that can be attacked with confidence. This postseason, Dort is only averaging 2.0 made three pointers per game and he is shooting an ugly 28.6% from beyond the arc. Plus, Dort has been less effective as an outside shooter on the road this season, and he has stayed under 2.5 made three pointers in five straight away from Oklahoma City.
The third-most bet player prop belongs to Hartenstein for 20+ PR at -160. This a very strong bet and honestly should be more favorited. The big man has reached 20+ PR in every game of this series vs. the Nuggets, and he has reached this number in seven of nine games this postseason. If Hartenstein can avoid foul trouble, he should see big minutes to match up with Jokic. Hartenstein should cash this bet, possibly with ease.
Speaking of Jokic, the three-time MVP occupies for the fourth and fifth-most bet player props for Game 6. First off is the superstar for 30+ points at a favorable +105 price. Jokic just destroyed the Thunder for 44 points in Game 5 while shooting 68% from the field, which is the second time the big man has scored over 40 points in the five games of this series. With the Nuggets season on the line, Jokic should barely leave the floor. Reaching 30 points is a strong possibility for the center, especially with this game being at home in Denver. Jokic has historically been more productive at home than on the road throughout his career.
Next up is Jokic to be the first point scorer of this contest at +500. While big men are always the best targets for first basket props, Jokic surprisingly has only been the first point scorer seven times this season, meaning he has only accomplished this in 8% of his starts this year. In the first minute of first quarters this season, Jokic is handling an 18.9% usage rate, which is well under his 29.7% average for the season. Given these numbers, Jokic should have longer odds to be the first scorer and isn’t the best choice for this market. Jokic’s teammate in Jamal Murray is the better option to be the first point scorer at longer +600 odds. Murray has been the first scorer 12 times this season, and he leads Denver with a 30% usage rate in the first minute of the first quarter this season.
