McIlroy already has three wins under his belt this season and rightfully so, he was a very popular pick to win the PGA Championship this week. Not just due to his incredible form, but given that the PGA Championship is being played at Quail Hollow Club, where McIlroy has notably won four times. Before the PGA Championships first round Thursday, the Irishman carried very short +500 odds to win the major on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Unfortunately, McIlroy didn’t get off to a strong start Thursday, posting a 3-over 74 in the first round. The 36-year-old began his day with a birdie, but after that, he only recorded one other birdie, three bogeys and one double bogey. McIlroy struggled with his putter, losing 2.4 strokes on the greens and his driver was also a huge problem, with McIlroy only finding 4-of-14 fairways. The veteran leads the PGA TOUR in SG OTT this season, but this is a product of distance and not accuracy, as he ranks 175th in fairways found and third in driving distance. While McIlroy has found a ton of success this season while not being accurate with his driver, hitting only 28% of fairways a major championship simply isn’t going to cut it. McIlroy must improve his accuracy with his driver in round two if he wants to bounce back, which is certainly a strong possibility.
McIlroy hasn’t shot over par in two straight rounds once this season and there have been multiple occasions that he has rebounded in a huge way after a poor round. For a few examples, when he shot a 1-over par 73 during the third round of his THE PLAYERS Championship victory, McIlroy improved by five strokes and shot a 68 in the final round, which was obviously one of the main reasons for his win at TPC Sawgrass. Furthermore, during McIlroy’s momentous Masters win victory last month, he shot a mediocre even par 72 in the first round, but then fired off a 6-under 66 in the second and third rounds of the major.
Quail Hollow is also the perfect place for McIlroy to get back on track. As mentioned above, he has won four times at this course and his career average score at the venue is 69.5. McIlroy has performances of 61 and 62 at Quail Hollow, and heading into this week, he was gaining 2.72 strokes per round at the course, which was the best in this field by nearly a whole stroke.
McIlroy’s odds to win the PGA Championship have dropped all the way down to +3000 after his lackluster opening round on Thursday and attacking him at these long odds has a ton of merit, especially when you consider he is only seven shots off the lead despite his poor first day. Also, while props for the second round aren’t out yet, backing McIlroy to shoot under his round score prop will be a sharp move.
