The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers begin a four-game series tonight at Globe Life Field. The opener promises excitement, with Hunter Brown facing Jacob deGrom. Both teams are coming off series wins earlier this week.
Let’s get into a preview for this game and some picks that you can take on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Hunter Brown was impressive last season, but in 2025, he’s reached new heights. Through 48.2 innings, he boasts a 1.48 ERA, a 2.85 xERA, and a 1.85 FIP. His K/9 has soared to a career-high 10.7, and he’s surrendered just one home run. His four-seam fastball has been nearly untouchable, with opposing hitters managing a mere .093 batting average and a .115 wOBA against it. By contrast, the Rangers’ offense has struggled, posting a .316 wOBA and a .159 ISO against that pitch. Given their lackluster offensive performance, I expect Brown to dominate tonight.
Though Jacob deGrom may not dominate as he once did, his 2025 stats remain impressive. He enters tonight with a 2.72 ERA, a 2.82 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP. His 9.6 K/9, while down from his peak of 13–14 K/9, still averages over a strikeout per inning. He’s generating whiffs and ground balls at his highest rate since 2021. The Astros, however, don’t strike out often but struggle to hit effectively, with a .317 wOBA against right-handers, ranking 17th league-wide. They’ve particularly faltered against sliders, which deGrom throws 41% of the time. The Astros’ expected lineup tonight has a combined .258 wOBA and .148 ISO against that pitch.
Astros vs. Rangers picks, best bet
Best Bet: Under 3.5 runs through first five innings -120
Tonight’s pitching matchup between deGrom and Brown is stellar, and I expect limited offense from both teams. Betting on the first five innings eliminates bullpen variables and highlights the starters’ dominance. If either starter fails to pitch five innings, it would likely be due to injury or a rare poor performance, which would likely sink this bet. Given deGrom and Brown’s form, I predict fewer than four runs scored through the first five innings.
Strong Lean: Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts +100
Brown has gone over this number in six of the nine starts he’s made this season. With his current career-high in swing-and-miss rate, he should be able to rack up more strikeouts in this matchup against the Rangers.
Check out more MLB content on DraftKings Network!
