After an exciting first few days of the week in the MLB, the schedule will settle down a little bit tonight with just a four-game featured slate for the early afternoon games.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t stars on the docket, though; I’d certainly give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,900) that label. In order to fit Guerrero — and others — in the lineup, you’ll need to surround him with some cheaper options. Here are my three favorite value options from today’s slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st].
SP Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, $7,300
This season hasn’t exactly gone as planned for the Orioles, who have lost eight of their last 10 games and now sit dead last in the tightly-contested AL East at 15-26, nine games behind the New York Yankees. They have the worst run differential in the American League, although they’ve still been one run better than the Miami Marlins and 57 runs better than the historically woeful Colorado Rockies. In seven of their 11 May games, they’ve scored three or fewer runs, hardly a recipe for winning baseball games.
Unlike Baltimore, Paddack is trending in the right direction, having carried a perfect game into the sixth inning of his most recent start, a 3-1 win over the San Francisco Giants last Friday. He ended up pitching 7.1 innings, giving up three hits and one run while striking out six (28.7 FPTS). All in all, he’s given up one or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts (with a 2.51 ERA across that span) and most of the damage on his ledger was done in the first game of the season, when he gave up nine earned runs in 3.1 innings (-12.5 FPTS). His average spin rates and average velocity were higher in his most recent start than in his blowup first outing across the board, so his improved form should be sustainable.
C Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals, $3,500
I’ve targeted the Braves’ sixth-ranked prospect several times this season, and he’s repaid my faith every time. Brian Snitker is starting to have more faith in him, too, indicating that Baldwin would see more time behind the dish as he operates in a time share with veteran Sean Murphy ($4,700). The 24-year-old has gone 11-for-21 in his past 10 games with two homers and five runs batted in (7.3 FPTS per game), and for the season, he’s slashing a very impressive .338/.390/.563. Although he’s not yet qualified for Statcast metrics, he’d rank in the top half of the league in virtually every category, generating a hard hit 65.5% of the time he makes contact.
Nationals starter Trevor Williams ($7,000) hasn’t been good as of late, giving up four or more earned runs in each of his last three starts, and his fastball velocity ranks in just the first percentile league-wide. His control is pretty good, since he has a 76th percentile walk percentage, but besides that, there’s not much good to say about Williams’ game. He rarely generates whiffs and gives up a lot of hard hits, and he’s also been significantly better at home than on the road so far. Baldwin’s outlook gets even brighter once Williams is out of the game; Washington’s bullpen has allowed a 6.86 ERA, the second-highest figure in the league.
