Two straight victories have put the Thunder one win away from the Western Conference Finals. Standing in their way is three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, looking to tie this series up 3-3. If Oklahoma City does advance to the next round, it’ll likely need a solid performance from All-Star Jalen Williams. On Monday, the guard accounted for 18 points, nine rebounds and four assists against Denver.
The Thunder enter tonight’s contest as 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 217 points. Here’s the best Jalen Williams prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook before Thursday’s Game 6 tips off.
Jalen Williams O 4.5 assists (-130)
Playing next to MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it’s easy to forget about what Jalen Williams brings to the Thunder. The 24-year-old is a true jack of all trades, capable of doing a little bit of everything at any position on the court. In the regular season, he averaged 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game while playing exceptional defense.
Williams’ all-around excellence has carried over into the postseason. Through nine playoff games, he’s posted 20.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists. In this series, the wing has recorded more than 18 points only once, in Game 3 (32 pts.). Still, he’s had a massive impact on Oklahoma City’s early postseason success. Among players to have reached the second round, J-Dub ranks ninth in box plus-minus (6.0).
As good as Williams is, Denver’s defense has done an admirable job at slowing down his scoring. Regardless, Oklahoma City’s second-best player is too talented not to make an impact tonight. This season, the Nuggets have allowed 28.6 assists per game to opponents, tied for the third-most in basketball. Williams has tallied five or more dimes in seven of his nine appearances this postseason.
J-Dub comes into tonight’s contest having shot a combined 7-of-27 over his last two outings. It’s fair to expect better efficiency in Game 6, but the guard’s scoring isn’t something I’d feel comfortable betting on. Instead, expect Williams to thrive as a distributor on Thursday. An already questionable Denver defense will have its eyes solely on Gilgeous-Alexander. That should leave several Thunder shooters open from beyond the arc. An unselfish player such as Williams will have no problem sharing the rock in a matchup where points could be at a premium.
