It’s a barren slate of only six games on the diamond this Thursday. And, in the case of this one in Atlanta, the land is so flat and barren that we’ve got tornado warnings! There’s a solid chance this game gets called off before first pitch gets thrown. Having said that, below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday baseball game between the Braves and the Nationals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Braves vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Trevor Williams and the Washington Nationals face a daunting challenge against the Atlanta Braves in today’s finale. Williams, with his 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, has been far from the reliable starter for which the Nationals hoped. Over his last three starts, he’s given up 13 runs across 16.2 innings, which is just flat-out woof. His control issues are glaring, posting just a 2.6 BB/9 rate with a 1.09 HR/9. Williams’ FIP of 3.97 suggests some bad luck, but a young, poor defense and weak bullpen have compounded the damage.
On the other side, AJ Smith-Shawver has been a revelation for Atlanta. The rookie boasts a 2.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 32.2 innings. With a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate, he has shown excellent control. Smith-Shawver has surrendered two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts, including his last outing against the Pirates, where he allowed just one earned run in 5.2 innings. His FIP of 3.21 underscores his steady dominance. Even with Spencer Strider nearing a return, Smith-Shawver has proven himself a reliable option.
Offensively, the Braves are starting to get a little action on their sizzle. Despite a .240 team batting average, their .382 slugging has propelled them to 44 home runs on the season, and Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna are hitting .316 and .271, respectively, over their last five games. Atlanta’s bats exploded in the first two games of this series, and they will face Williams, who has struggled against high-powered offenses. Ozzie Albies, despite a down year, remains a constant on base. There are plenty of underperformers, here, but the Braves’ deep lineup will make Williams’ job difficult.
Washington, meanwhile, ranks 18th in runs per game and 21st in OPS, and while James Wood has been a bright spot with a .888 OPS in May, the Nationals’ offensive consistency remains in question. Washington’s 5.42 team ERA sits among the worst in MLB, and with Luis Garcia Jr. on the paternity list, their lineup is missing one of its few steady contributors.
Nationals vs. Braves pick, best bet
Betting insights further solidify this lean. Atlanta has covered the spread in five of their last six home games, while Washington has faltered on the road, losing seven of their last 10 as underdogs of this magnitude. The Braves’ bullpen has been strong, with a 2.31 ERA in their last seven games. On the contrary, the Nationals’ bullpen has a 4.85 ERA this month, making late-game comebacks unlikely.
With Williams’ inconsistent form and Atlanta’s recent uptick in play, the Braves -1.5 at -110 is the sharp pick here. Expect Atlanta to continue their dominance at home, with Smith-Shawver delivering another strong start, and the Braves’ offense should have little trouble powering through Washington’s fragile pitching staff.
Best bet: Braves -1.5 (-110) vs. Nationals
Nationals just don’t have it—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
