The Boston Celtics’ championship hopes seemingly slipped away in the Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks. While the result of the game was already in doubt, Jayson Tatum lunged forward and fell to the floor in clear pain with about three minutes left to play. The Celtics superstar has officially been diagnosed with a torn Achilles and has already undergone surgery, but will be out for the remainder of the season and much of next year.
Despite the Celtics trailing 2-1 entering the game, the Celtics held -300 odds of still advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. Following Tatum’s injury and falling into the 3-1 series hole, the Knicks are now -525 favorites to advance on DraftKings Sportsbook. The defending champions hold +400 odds of becoming the 14th team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 series deficit.
Looking at the Game 5 odds, the Celtics are 4.5-point favorites and -175 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks hold +145 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 207.5 for this matchup.
Whether the Celtics roll over following the loss of Tatum or pack it up and prepare for an interesting offseason against this hungry Knicks team will be interesting to see. Here are my favorite prop bets for this Game 5 battle.
Derrick White Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145)
With Jayson Tatum sidelined, expect Derrick White’s offensive role to be even further scaled up. The 30-year-old has served as the connective tissue of this Celtics team and is comfortable filling whatever role he is called to fill. Much of this impact has been from behind the three-point arc in this series. Across the first four games, White is averaging 19.8 points per game and making 4.3 perimeter shots per game.
White has attempted 11 or more three-pointers in three of the four games, shooting 3-for-6 in the lone game he fell short. The Colorado product dropped 23 points in the previous game and shot 6-for-11 from beyond the three-point arc. Many of these three-point looks were wide open, with the Celtics’ game plan of driving and kicking proving effective against the Knicks’ defense. While Tatum’s absence changes the equation to an extent, don’t expect Boston to abandon their identity as the premier three-point shooting team in basketball.
Looking around the rest of this Celtics team, Kristaps Porzingis doesn’t look close to 100%, Al Horford is showing his age for the first time in his career, Jrue Holiday has underwhelmed, and Jaylen Brown is coming off a poor Game 4. There is a real chance that the bulk of the offensive responsibility falls on White’s shoulders, probably more than should be the case. Expect at least double-digit perimeter attempts from White tonight, and feel comfortable with him connecting on over 3.5 made three-pointers in this Game 5 matchup.
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-125)
The New York Knicks made a massive splash in the offseason, trading for Mikal Bridges for a massive haul of draft picks. While he has been a bit underutilized in the offense, Bridges is raising his game in the biggest moments. He is coming off a 23-point performance in the previous game and has attempted double-digit field goal attempts in every game this series. He is coming off 21 field goal attempts in the previous game, which ties the fourth most in any game this season. Bridges was brought in with this specific matchup against the Celtics in mind and is proving his worth in this series.
Heading into Game 5, expect Bridges and the Knicks to smell the blood in the water. Tatum’s absence changes the Celtics’ defensive approach in a way that plays in plays to Bridges’ favor. At 6-foot-6 with his high release point and preferred fadeaway jump shot technique, Bridges’ jump shot is nearly unguardable, and he is shooting the ball with extreme confidence. He shot 11-for-21 from the field in the previous game, including 10-for-15 from inside the three-point arc.
Bridges has recorded over 14.5 points in five of the 10 playoff games, with 23 points in the previous game marking his second-most in this postseason run. Look for the Knicks to go right back to the well and count on him as a key contributor in this potential closeout game. The Villanova product averaged 17.6 points per game in the regular season and is averaging 15.4 points per game in the postseason. Count on him to reach his averages and record over 14.5 points in tonight’s game.
Jalen Brunson Over 34.5 Points & Assists (-110)
Even when Jayson Tatum was on the floor, Jalen Brunson has been the clear-cut best player in this series. After averaging 26.0 points and 7.3 assists per game in the regular season, Brunson has increased his outputs to 30.1 points and 8.0 assists across this playoff run. His usage rate has jumped from 29.5% in the regular season to 32.9% in the playoffs after leading the NBA in usage rate at 36.4% last postseason.
Brunson is coming off a 39-point and 12-assist performance in Game 4 and has recorded over 34.5 combined points and assists in six of the 10 playoff games overall. The two-time All-Star is a tough shot maker who does an excellent job leveraging his scoring to create looks for others. Even with strong perimeter defenders like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, Brunson has looked unbothered in this series and has had no issues getting to his spots.
I have written up his assist prop, which he has cleared in nine of the 10 games in this playoff run, for most of this series but prefer the combined points and assists for tonight’s matchup. There is a real chance Boston comes out deflated following the injury news, and Brunson possesses the killer instinct to try to put this game away early. Count on him to continue to be at the epicenter of everything the Knicks do offensively and record over 34.5 combined points and assists as New York looks to officially punch their tickets to the Eastern Conference Finals.
