Not only did this series between the Knicks and Celtics take yet another unexpected turn on Monday night, but the Celtics future and the landscape of the NBA also took a major swing when Jayson Tatum went down with a ruptured Achilles. The C’s will now need to collectively make up Tatum’s absence in a win-or-go-home Game 5 at TD Garden, with the Knicks stunningly sitting in the driver’s seat with a 3-1 series lead.
Let’s take a look at some player props to consider given Tatum’s absence.
Payton Pritchard OVER 14.5 Points (-125)
While Pritchard had a tremendous breakout season, earning Sixth Man of the Year in the process, he’s been less shy when Tatum is off the floor. In 70 games with JT this season, Pritchard was awesome, averaging 13.6 points per game on 10.2 field goal attempts (7.5 of which were from downtown). However, Pritchard’s light gets even more green without Tatum.
Although his playing time goes up only about four minutes per game, Pritchard jumps to 18.5 points in 11 games without Tatum, taking nearly 15 shots per game, with 9.8 per game coming from beyond the arc. Pritchard was very successful in Boston’s lone win of the series, dropping 23 points in 35 minutes off the bench. Look for a large role and a lot of looks for him in Game 5.
Jaylen Brown OVER 4.5 Assists (-150)
While common sense tells us that we should be looking at Brown’s point prop with Tatum out, and we will soon, the numbers tell us that there’s a stronger play on the board. Brown assumes a ton of usage over a 48 minute game in which Tatum is off the floor, and also becomes the focal point of the defense. That leads to a lot more distribution than we’re accustomed to, especially to all of Boston’s capable 3-point shooters.
In eight games that Brown has played without Tatum this season, including Game 2 against the Magic, Brown averages 6.1 assists per game. Brown has gone 7-1 to the over if we use the line of 4.5 assists being offered in this one, although there’s some juice. While it is a good spot for Brown to make an impact as a scorer, his game will also need to incorporate distribution with the spotlight that’ll be on him.
Jaylen Brown OVER 25.5 Points (-110)
Now for the obvious, with Brown needing to do it all here for the C’s. JB actually only averages 24.5 points in the eight games he’s playing with Tatum off the floor this season, so the numbers really don’t point to an edge here. However, the circumstances should lead us to expect more from Brown. We saw Brown go off for 36 points in Game 2 against the Magic, which was the game Tatum missed due to a wrist injury. So there’s something to stepping up to a higher level when needed in the postseason. Also, during the regular season, Kristaps Porzingis helped Brown shoulder the load when Tatum was sidelined. KP averaged 22.8 points in the six games he played without Tatum, but his prop is only 14.5 for Game 5. While it would appear there’s a huge edge to that number, Porzingis clearly isn’t himself, which means we should expect Brown to do more of the heavy lifting.
In his own words, Brown felt he “failed” his team back in Game 7 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat. You may recall Tatum injured his ankle in the opening minutes of the game, and Boston leaned on Brown to carry them. He shot 8-for-23 from the field and just 1-of-11 from downtown, finishing with 19 points and eight turnovers. Brown will view this as a chance to avenge that failure.
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