The second major of the season has finally arrived, with the PGA Championship being played at Quail Hollow Club (par 71, 7,625 yards, POA trivialis greens) in Charlotte, North Carolina. This par 71 hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship from 2003-2024, except in 2017, 2020, and 2022. The PGA Championship’s field features 156 golfers and a top-70 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the PGA Championship.
Tommy Fleetwood over Patrick Cantlay (-115)
Both these players finished T4th at the Truist Championship last week, but overall, Fleetwood is in better form than Cantlay. Fleetwood has gained strokes in every major category in back-to-back starts and he has produced eight top-25 finishes in nine starts this season, while Cantlay has carded six top-25 finishes in 10 starts.
Also, last week’s Truist Championship was played at the Wissahickon Course of the Philadelphia Cricket Club, which is a track that features bentgrass greens. This is bar none Cantaly’s favorite type of putting surface, and he should come back down to earth at Quail Hollow. This venue presents POA trivialis greens, and Fleetwood is the more efficient player than Cantlay on this green type. When we compare these two players last 50 rounds at courses with POA putting surfaces, Fleetwood is gaining 1.1 strokes per round, while Cantlay is gaining 0.92.
Given this, Fleetwood has unsurprisingly been better at Quail Hollow than Cantlay. Fleetwood has made 4-of-5 cuts Quail Hollow with three of these finishes being top-15 results, while Cantlay has made 3-of-4 cuts at the venue, but he has never finished better than T29th. Quail Hollow simply sets up better for Fleetwood and he should have no problems outperforming Cantlay.
Max Homa over Tom Kim (-110)
For multiple reasons, Homa is the right choice in this matchup vs. Kim. First off, Homa travels to Quail Hollow in much better form than Kim. Homa has finished T12th, T70th, and T30th in his last three starts. That T12th came at the first major of the season in the Masters, and Homa has gained strokes on approach in two of these past three starts. Kim on the other hand has gone MC, T52nd, and MC in his last three starts, and he has lost strokes on approach at all these tournaments. When we compare this field’s last 12 rounds, Homa ranks 83rd in total strokes gained, while Kim ranks 109th.
Homa also has a huge edge in course history at Quail Hollow over Kim. Homa won the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow by three shots, and he also finished T8th at the 2023 and 2024 editions of this event. Kim, meanwhile, has only finished T23rd and T47th in his two appearances at Quail Hollow. Homa is gaining a strong 1.35 strokes per round at the famous course – which ranks 15th among this stacked field – while Kim is gaining a mediocre 0.18.
Homa rightfully so carries shorter outright odds than Kim to win the PGA championship this weekend and Homa is an easy choice for this matchup.
