The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best team during the regular season. They led the league in wins with 68, had the third-ranked offense, best defense and were the only team to sport a double-digit net rating. They lost only 14 games all season.
Two of those were against the Denver Nuggets, as the teams split four games, with both teams winning a game on the opposing home court.
That’s how it played out for the first four games in their playoff series, with Denver winning the first game in Oklahoma City.
In Game 5, though, the Thunder became the first team to win back-to-back games, despite 77.25 FPTS from Nikola Jokic. Now the series return to Denver, as the Thunder look to close out the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals.
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC -4.5 over DEN on the road with the total at 216.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (OKC at DEN)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
Captain’s Picks
Jamal Murray ($14,400 CP): The floor is high for Murray, as he is the second offensive option for the Nuggets, he contributes in every statistical category most nights and is going to play over 40 minutes barring foul trouble, injury or blowout. The usage rate was 32 percent last game, but it will usually hover in the low-to-mid 20 area. But Murray has these games from time to time when he goes absolutely bonkers. Against the Clippers, he went for 43 points, five rebounds, seven assists, a block and three steals, good for 71.25 FPTS. In Game 3 of the series with the Thunder, he put up 54 FPTS. In a must-win game at home, I like Murray to step up and produce a ceiling game, especially since Jokic is and always will be the focus. The price is also palatable and allows me to fit better options in the UTIL slots.
UTIL Plays
Nikola Jokic ($13,800): The Thunder stymied Jokic in Games 2, 3 and 4, holding him to sub-40 percent shooting from the field. Jokic effused praise for the varied looks in the postgame press conferences. With the elevated price tag, 57.25, 54.5 and 38 FPTS are wins for those fading Jokic. That said, he went for 83.5 FPTS in Game 1 and put up 77.25 FPTS last game. He’s always in play to triple-double and put up a “had-to-have-it” score. In an elimination game at home, I don’t see Jokic going down meekly.
Peyton Watson ($1,600): In Game 4, Watson only played nine minutes and finished with 2 FPTS. That’s the floor. In the other four games, though, Watson played at least 15 minutes in all and finished with double-digit FPTS. He’s a low-usage player, but is very athletic and can rack up defensive stats, get rebounds and get busy in transition. Role players usually get a boost playing a home, and he’s an energy player to begin with, so that is only a positive.
Alex Caruso ($5,200): Like Watson, Caruso had one poor game. In Game 2, he only played 10 minutes and finished with 4 FPTS, but that was due to the 43-point blowout. In the other four games, Caruso played around 25 minutes and put up double-digit FPTS, with 45.75 FPTS in Game 1. In that one, he had 20 points, a rebound, six assists, five steals and two blocks. I’m not expecting that to be replicated, but it shows the ceiling. Due to his defense, Caruso should see significant playing time and he’s been blanked in the defensive columns the past two games. That changes on Thursday.
Fades
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,200): MPJ is having a rough series, as he’s shooting 28 percent from the field and 25 percent from downtown. He’s exceeded 20 FPTS only once. Most importantly, he’s played fewer than 30 minutes in three of the games in this series. If the projected ownership numbers come out very low for MPJ, then he becomes a viable option because he can get hot. That said, he’s been dealing with a shoulder issue and the Thunder defense hasn’t given him space, so I’m not too worried about a breakout game.
THE OUTCOME
I’m expecting an epic Game 6, with both teams landing haymaker after haymaker. Murry and Jokic are champions, and that experience along with stellar play will have the Nuggets living to fight another day. Game 7!!!
Final Score: Nuggets 112, Thunder 108
