Things are crashing back down to Earth for the Mariners. After winning nine straight series and rocketing to the top of the AL West, Seattle has dropped its last four games, getting swept at home by the Blue Jays this past weekend and losing on Monday to the Yankees.
Still, this projects as one of the most interesting contests on Tuesday’s full slate. Not only do we get a star-studded pitching matchup between Max Fried and Bryan Woo, but by wRC+, these are actually the two best offenses in the American League. Could we be looking at a possible ALCS preview?
Let’s break down every betting angle of tonight’s action at T-Mobile Park with the help of some odds and lines at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Mariners prediction, preview
It would be weird to start with anyone but Fried, who enters Tuesday in possession of the lowest qualified ERA in baseball (1.05). A majority of the left-hander’s ERA estimators are at least two runs higher, as Fried’s .231 opponent BABIP is far too low to sustain across a whole season, yet the fact of the matter is that New York’s $218 million offseason acquisition has conceded only six earned runs in his first 51.2 innings as a Yankee. You can’t ask for a better outcome if you’re Brian Cashman — especially after the club lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery in Spring Training.
Fried would be New York’s early MVP if not for the presence of Aaron Judge. I could go on and on about Judge’s exploits so far in 2025, but it’s probably easiest to say the reigning AL Most Valuable Player sits in the 100th percentile of the league in expected wOBA (.510), expected slugging percentage (.799) and barrel rate (25.8%). I guess I could also just direct your eyes to this tweet:
Woo will be the man tasked with shutting down Judge and the rest of the Yankees’ lineup on Tuesday night. With so many injuries in Seattle’s rotation — and Luis Castillo struggling — Woo has been the Mariners’ ace in 2025. In 44.1 innings of work, Woo has pitched to a 3.25 ERA and a 2.86 xERA. Part of Woo’s success is simply his unwillingness to concede free passes. In fact, among pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since the start of 2024, Woo’s 3.3% walk rate is the second-lowest mark in baseball. It’s also crucial that this tilt is taking place in Seattle. In that same two-year span, Woo’s curated a 2.27 ERA at T-Mobile Park, limiting opponents to a .188/.214/.293 slash line.
Yankees vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Despite how well both of these squads have hit over the last month, this is lining up to be a low-scoring affair. Fried’s given up one earned run since April 20, while Woo possesses a 2.43 FIP across his past five starts. Seattle’s also been much better against RHPs so far in 2025, with key contributors Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco both preferring to bat from the left-side.
Adjust your bets accordingly, people.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-118)
Fried and Woo have been among the best pitchers in the American League in 2025.
Strong Lean: NRFI (-135)
NRFI has hit in five of Fried’s past seven starts, with one of the two losses coming on an unearned run.
