After drubbing the Red Sox 14-2 on Monday, the Tigers will look for their 10th victory in their last 13 games on Tuesday at Comerica Park. Standing in Detroit’s way will be Brayan Bello and the Red Sox, who continue to hover around the .500 mark — much to the chagrin of Boston’s rabid fanbase.
Let’s break down everything you’ll need to know for this matchup with the help of some lines and odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction, preview
The biggest news to know heading into this tilt is that Tyler Holton will open the game for the Tigers. That’s right. We’re back to Detroit’s patented “pitching chaos” formula that worked so well in the second-half of 2024, as Casey Mize was placed on the IL earlier this week with a hamstring injury.
Holton has made 15 appearances for the Tigers so far in 2025, pitching to a 3.12 ERA, yet also in possession of a 5.01 FIP thanks to surrendering four opponent home runs in his 17.1 innings of work. Holton’s longest outing of the season is just two innings, but he did face nine batters in his April 30 appearance against the Astros, throwing a season-high 35 pitches in that contest. It’s unclear how long A.J. Hinch would like Holton to go on Tuesday, but the lefty presents a nice handedness option with Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers sitting atop the Red Sox’s lineup. If all goes well, Holton might even see Wilyer Abreu before departing this game.
On the other side, the aforementioned Bello will make his fifth start of 2025. Things have been, well, interesting for the young right-hander since returning off the IL. Bello does sport a pristine 2.01 ERA coming into tonight’s action, yet a 5.53 xERA and a 5.57 FIP tell a much different story. Bello’s mainly thrived due to unsustainable marks in both opponent BABIP (.234) and strand rate (97.1%). Everything else looks pretty gross. The RHP’s strikeout rate is down at just 13.8% and his K/BB ratio is a microscopic 1.08. To say that Bello is due for some regression would be an understatement. The 25-year-old has been incredibly lucky to begin the season and I’d expect a red-hot Detroit lineup will be the broken mirror that sends Bello spiralling back to misfortune.
Red Sox vs. Tigers pick, best bet
The term “bullpen game” generally has a pretty negative connotation, but that’s not the case when it’s the Tigers using it. Not only did Detroit have much success with the strategy in 2024, but the team currently owns an AL-best bullpen ERA of 2.72. Add in MLB’s fourth-best wRC+ across the past two weeks (136), and I’m having a hard time understanding why the Tigers are a slight home underdog on Tuesday night.
Take advantage.
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-105)
The Tigers don’t have a traditional starter tonight, but they do have a AL-best 2.72 bullpen ERA.
Strong Lean: Brayan Bello 3+ Earned Runs Allowed (+115)
Bello’s ERA estimators are roughly 3.5 runs higher than his 2.01 ERA. A scorching Tigers’ lineup will close that gap this evening.
