The Oklahoma City Thunder narrowly avoided disaster in Game 4 of their second-round series against the Denver Nuggets, eking out a 102-97 win on Sunday despite shooting just 35.6% from the field and 24.4% from beyond the arc. If they’d lost, they would’ve gone down 3-1 and been at greater risk of joining the other two 60-plus-win teams in being eliminated in the second round.
If the Thunder want to make it to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2015-16, they’ll need more from Jalen Williams. Williams has averaged 18.8 points per game this series, but his production has come on just 37-21-85 shooting splits.
Still, Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 221. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around J-Dub.
Best Jalen Williams Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Williams O21.5 Points (-105)
Williams had an awful shooting performance in Game 1, finishing with 16 points on five-for-20 shooting — at the time, his single least efficient performance of the season — but rebounded with an efficient 17 points in just 26 minutes in Game 2 and a 32-point outburst in Game 3. Going two-for-13 from the field in Game 4 obviously wasn’t the plan, but it’s clear that Williams is more prepared for the playoffs than he was last season, and there should be no concerns about his ability to bounce back. As is, his shooting performance in Game 4 was anomalous. Astoundingly, he’s made just one of his 15 wide-open threes this series after hitting 36.5% of such shots during the regular season, by far the worst accuracy among the 25 players who have taken at least 10 wide-open triples so far in the second round.
To be fair, the Nuggets forced him into a few difficult shots in his dismal Game 4 performance, as he didn’t attempt a single shot inside the restricted area, going two-for-five from floater range and zero-for-three from the midrange, and some credit should definitely go to Aaron Gordon for that. But when his deep shooting is that awful, some shooting normalization has to be accounted for. As is, he posted 50-43-84 shooting splits at home against Denver in the regular season and 44-38-50 shooting splits on the road, so maybe being back on the prairie will help.
Jalen Williams U4.5 Rebounds (+105)
Williams has recorded exactly three rebounds in each of his last two games, as the Nuggets’ prowess on the boards has somewhat stymied the Thunder so far. Denver has nabbed 49.8 boards per game, the most of any second-round team, continuing its dominance from a regular season in which it allowed the sixth-fewest rebounds to opposing players. To be fair, Oklahoma City has out-rebounded the Nuggets in each of the past three games, but that has more to do with double-big minutes featuring both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein than it does Williams. He’s had just 9.0 rebound chances per game this series, a 0.8-board downturn from the regular season, and he’s also deferring a team-high 1.3 rebound chances per game. His average board this series is also coming two feet further away from the basket than it did during the regular season, so his totals are more dependent on luck than positioning.
