A must-win matchup is on tap tonight when the Thunder host the Nuggets. Oklahoma City and Denver are tied up in the Western Conference semifinals, with each squad winning two games in this series. Which of these title contenders has the edge in Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5 showdown?
The Thunder enter tonight as 9.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 221 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down both teams going into Tuesday’s contest.
Nuggets vs. Thunder preview, prediction
After getting shocked by Denver in Game 3, OKC responded on Sunday. The Thunder, one of the NBA’s elite defensive units, gutted out an ugly 92-87 win in Game 4. Just four members of the Nuggets scored more than six points. In comparison, seven different Oklahoma City players reached that total. Leading the way was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who tallied 25 points, six rebounds and six assists.
Despite winning twice, Denver has been frustrated by OKC’s defensive pressure. Over their last four outings, the Nuggets have turned the ball over 16.3 times per game. If there’s a saving grace for tonight’s road team, it’s Nikola Jokic. The three-time MVP is a walking triple-double, putting up monstrous stats all postseason. In this series, the Serbian is averaging 26.5 points, 14.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game.
As always, the Thunder have a high chance of winning if they merely slow down The Joker. Easier said than done against basketball’s best player, but it’s not impossible. In Game 2, the center scored just 17 points on 6-of-16 shooting, fouling out in the third quarter. Gilgeous-Alexander may not have Jokic’s high ceiling, but he’s been incredibly consistent. The guard has posted 27.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists this series.
This battle of Western Conference titans will likely come down to each side’s superstar. Jokic is a one-man offense, while SGA controls one of the sport’s elite scoring attacks. Given how deep the Thunder are, there’s a reason they enter Tuesday as nearly double-digit favorites. In contrast, it’s difficult to imagine the Nuggets doing anything without 20+ points from Jokic and one of Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon.
Nuggets vs. Thunder pick, best bet
Oklahoma City has proven to be a difficult group to back this postseason. On any given night, the Thunder could earn a blowout win or a shocking loss. So far, Denver has proven to be a worthy opponent, presenting several matchup problems. In addition to Jokic’s dominance, Gordon has wreaked havoc on both ends of the floor. If the Nuggets are to win, they’ll need to dominate the glass against an OKC roster with rebounding issues.
For casual NBA playoff viewers, this has been the crown jewel of the second round. Other than Game 2, every matchup between these two has been decided by nine or fewer points. Given how each side has struggled to generate offense this series, another close contest favors the Nuggets.
