The Cavaliers and Pacers continue their second round series with Game 5 in Cleveland on Tuesday. Currently, the Pacers are leading this series 3-1. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are favored by 7.5 points for Game 5. This contest carries a total of 230 points.
Below, I break down Game 5 between the Cavaliers and the Pacers, and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers preview, prediction
After dominating the Cavaliers in Game 4, the Pacers have a chance to close out Cleveland and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a win in Game 5 on Tuesday. In that convincing Game 4 victory for Indiana, they won by 20 points and led by as many as 44 points. The Pacers shot 52.7% from the field and had seven players score 11+ points, with Pascal Siakam leading the way with 21. As they always do, Indiana’s offense moved the ball extremely well, with the team finishing with a huge 37 assists. For some perspective, the Nuggets lead the NBA with 30.0 assists per game this season.
As for the Cavaliers, they couldn’t match the Pacers’ energy right out the gate. While Darius Garland scored 21 points, Donovan Mitchell finished with only 12 points and missed the second half with an ankle injury. Mitchell is listed as questionable for Game 5, but is trending towards playing after being present at shoot-around on Tuesday morning. Before getting hurt in Game 4, Mitchell was on fire with 41.3 PPG in the first three games of this series. Given the Pacers were ahead by 41 points at halftime of Game 4, the Cavaliers were likely overly cautious with Mitchell, and he should be a full-go in Game 5 with Cleveland fighting to keep their season alive.
While Game 4 was obviously a lopsided affair, extreme blowouts in the playoffs happen. In Game 3, when the Cavaliers didn’t have any players get hurt and their big three of Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley were all active, Cleveland won by 24 points and didn’t trail in the contest. Assuming Mitchell plays and isn’t limited in Game 5, the Cavaliers will be at full strength, and if that is the case, they are going to be difficult to beat on their home floor with their season on the line.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers pick, best bet
Assuming Mitchell plays as expected, the Cavaliers should keep their season alive with a win in Game 5. With Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley active this season, the Cavaliers are 48-13. Cleveland is also 36-9 at home this season.
That being said, the Cavaliers haven’t been great at covering at home this season, with a 23-21-1 ATS record, so attacking them at -7.5 does feel risky. Instead of attacking Cleveland on the spread or Moneyline, the most logical option is to back them for over their team total of 118.5 points at -115. The Cavaliers lead the NBA in offensive rating and with Mitchell, Garland and Mobley active this season, Cleveland is averaging a huge 121.3 PPG.
