The Boston Celtics got back in the win column in Game 3 against the New York Knicks, producing a commanding 115-93 victory to cut the series deficit to 2-1. There has yet to be a home victory in this series, and tonight’s matchup will be taking place in New York for the second straight game.
Even while trailing 2-1 in the series, Boston holds -300 odds of advancing in the series on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Knicks are +245 underdogs to win two of the next four. The defending champions finally connected from beyond the three-point arc at a better rate in the previous game and will look to replicate this tonight. New York deserves credit for their strong start to the series, but this is just about a must-win matchup for the underdogs, with momentum shifting in a major way before the series heads back to Boston if the Celtics get their desired results.
Looking at the Game 4 odds, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites and -250 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks hold +205 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 208 for this matchup.
Here are my favorite prop bets for this Eastern Conference semifinals series Game 4 battle.
Derrick White Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+110)
Three-point shooting has been the story of the series for these Eastern Conference semifinals. Boston was uncharacteristically held to 25-for-100 from beyond the three-point arc across the first two games. They then bounced back to connect with 20 of their 40 perimeter shots in the Game 3 victory, which can be directly correlated to the result.
Derrick White has shot a combined 11-for-33 from beyond the three-point arc thus far in the series. He. shot 5-for-16 in Game 1, 3-for-11 in Game 2, and 3-for-6 in Game 3. These six three-point attempts were tied for his seventh fewest across the entire regular season. He averaged 9.1 three-point attempts per game and is launching 9.0 per game this far in the playoffs.
White took a bit of a back seat to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who combined for 38 of the team’s 83 field goal attempts. Payton Pritchard also found his stride off the bench, scoring 23 points on 16 shots. White is a team-first guy willing to take on whatever role the team needs, but expect him to be called on at the offensive end at a greater rate tonight. The Colorado product connected on over 3.5 made three-pointers in 35 regular-season games and is the connective tissue on this Celtics team. He has a knack for hitting big shots at the most opportune time, and look for this to be necessary tonight. Count on increased volume from the perimeter closer to the 11+ he attempts in the first two games, and for White to connect with over 3.5 made three-pointers tonight.
Payton Pritchard to Record 12+ Points (+145)
The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year has carried his impact to the postseason and continues to look like one of the most dangerous bench weapons in the league. His importance in this offense has grown in the postseason due to the status of some of Boston’s key contributors. Kristaps Porzingis still looks nowhere near 100% due to his illness, Jaylen Brown is battling through his knee issue, Al Horford is showing his age at times for the first time in his career, and Jayson Tatum has yet to play his best basketball. When Boston needs a spark, Pritchard is the guy to go to, and this proved important in Game 3.
Pritchard exploded for 23 points off the bench, shooting 8-for-16 from the field and 5-for-10 from beyond the three-point arc. The 34:31 of game time he logged in the previous game marked a playoff career high for the Oregon product, and expect this to be a sign of things to come based on the additional need for a scoring punch. Pritchard averaged 14.3 points per game across the regular season and tallied at least 12 points in 43 games. This includes dropping 25 points against the Knicks in one of the regular-season matchups. He is averaging 11.3 points per game thus far in the playoffs, but has tallied 12+ points in four of the eight games.
The standard point prop for Pritchard is set at 9.5 with the over set at -105 odds. But I think there is value in pushing this forward with the former champion a nice candidate to ladder his point prop. He may not replicate the 23 points in the previous game, but Boston will need his scoring punch off the bench and count on Pritchard to be more than willing to let it fly, as is constantly the case. Getting +145 odds for the Sixth Man of the Year to score 12+ points is great value on DraftKings Sportsbook, and don’t be shocked if he becomes one of the larger storylines in the series.
Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (+100)
There continues to be value in Jalen Brunson’s assist prop this offseason, and I continue to go back to the well. The star guard is at the epicenter of everything the Knicks do offensively. His usage rate has climbed to 32.9% this postseason, which trails only Donovan Mitchell among players still active in the playoffs. This comes after a 29.5% usage rate in the regular season and after Brunson led the NBA last postseason with a 36.4% usage rate. He is averaging 29.1 points, 7.6 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game thus far in these playoffs.
While Brunson will continue to be a score-first player at heart, he is more than capable of serving as a true point guard when the situation calls for it. Boston has mixed up their coverage as the series has progressed and begun throwing more doubles in his direction. New York has gotten some up-and-down performances from some of the supporting cast, and the Celtics are much more willing to live with the production of each of these as opposed to the two-time All-Star guard.
Brunson has tallied over 6.5 assists in eight of the nine playoff games, with Game 1 of this series being the lone exception. His assist output has improved from 7.3 per game in the regular season to 7.6 in the playoffs, and had a similar bump last year, dropping 7.5 assists after averaging 6.7 per game in the regular season. He is averaging 12.9 potential assists per game overall in the postseason. Brunson has had no trouble clearing this number, and it should only be aided if increased double-teams are sent his way. Take advantage of the +100 odds and count on the Knicks’ star to eclipse 6.5 assists for the ninth time in the opening 10 playoff games.
