We all like home runs — especially on a day where DraftKings is running its King of the Diamond promotion. However, it’s not the easiest thing in the world to predict home runs. That’s where I come in.
Here are my top three home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday night’s action in MLB.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+285)
It doesn’t seem like Olson’s ever going to hit home runs again at the pace he did in 2023, but we’re still talking about someone with 266 long balls and a .255 ISO in his career. He’s certainly not short on power. On Monday, Olson and the Braves will square-off with Jake Irvin of the Nationals, who has had a little trouble keeping the ball in the park so far in 2025. Thanks primarily to a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.8%), Irvin is surrendering 1.69 home runs per nine through his eight starts this season. Against specifically LHBs, that HR/9 jumps to 2.28.
Seiya Suzuki 1+ Home Run (+425)
As with any game at Wrigley, we have to start with the weather report. The wind will be blowing in from center this evening in Chicago, but despite that, I still like Suzuki’s chances of taking Cal Quantrill deep. Suzuki tends to be at his best against left-handed opponents, yet so far in 2025, the 30-year-old is hitting everyone of every handedness hard. In fact, Suzuki comes into tonight’s action in possession of an 89th percentile mark in both average exit velocity (92.5) and barrel rate (15.4%). Meanwhile, Quantrill has been demolished in right-on-right matchups in his time in Miami. Quantrill’s faced 65 RHBs this season and they’ve combined for a massive .672 slugging percentage.
Dylan Crews 1+ Home Run (+750)
Here’s our long shot for the evening. Crews has had a tough start to his first full MLB campaign, hitting .182 with a 56 wRC+ across 147 plate appearances. Still, things aren’t as bleak as they might seem. Crews’ underlying numbers are far more kind, with the former second-overall pick possessing a 66th percentile expected slugging percentage (.459) and a 78th percentile barrel rate (13.5%). Crews also sports a .435 expected wOBA on batted ball events, meaning when he does actually make contact, he’s smoking the ball. Grant Holmes has conceded 2.79 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs in 2025. As one of few right-handers in Washington’s lineup, I’ll back Crews to hit this prop on Monday.
