Break up the AL Central!
Often regarded as one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the midwest has been strong so far in 2025, with the Guardians, Tigers, Royals and Twins among the hottest teams in MLB entering play on Monday. Heck, the latter has won eight straight games and has pulled itself back over the .500 mark. It’s May, but at the moment, the top two Wild Card spots in the American League are from the Central. Who would’ve guessed it?
The NL Central isn’t doing too badly, either. The reigning division champion Brewers have registered a modest 20-21 record through their first 41 games, but the Cubs are an offensive machine and the Cardinals also enter this evening’s slate having won eight in a row.
Let’s break down this tilt between Cleveland and Milwaukee with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Guardians prediction, preview
The Brewers are just 8-14 as a road team in this season, yet they come into Cleveland as -125 favorites on the moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The reason for that is pretty simple: Freddy Peralta. The right-hander hasn’t started since May 4, as Pat Murphy gave Peralta a few extra days to rest an ailing groin, but the 28-year-old has looked amazing when actually on the mound so far in 2025. To wit, Peralta owns a 2.18 ERA and a 2.97 xERA over 45.1 innings, and while a 90.2% strand rate won’t sustain, Milwaukee’s ace is throwing the ball harder than he ever has before with one of the lowest walk rates of his career (8.3%). It’s difficult to nitpick Peralta at the moment. He’s simply been very good, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight outings.
Ben Lively has also been effective so far this season, but in a very different way than his counterpart on the bump. An illness to Tanner Bibee did technically make Lively the Guardians’ Opening Day starter in 2025, and the former KBO standout has responded with a 3.46 ERA across 41.2 innings of work. That figure even drops down to an impressive 2.51 ERA if you isolate Lively’s last six outings. Still, Lively lacks even a league-average strikeout rate (16.9%) and a 4.87 SIERA suggests that some regression is on the horizon. A sixth percentile opponent average exit velocity (92.0) isn’t a great sign, as well.
The question then becomes if the Brewers employ enough offensive firepower to take advantage of Lively’s flaws. Milwaukee’s bats have certainly struggled in recent days. In fact, over the past two weeks, the Brewers possess MLB-worst marks in both batting average (.192) and wRC+ (64). To be frank, the trio of Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Christian Yelich just haven’t done enough in 2025, with only Chourio currently sporting a wRC+ above 100 — and he’s barely accomplishing the feat.
Brewers vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Milwaukee has the clear advantage on the mound this evening, but the underwhelming nature of its lineup and the location of the contest give me pause on backing the team on the moneyline. While Ben Lively is due for some normalization, he has produced great results over the last month. I wouldn’t be shocked to see that trend continue on Monday, setting the stage for a low-scoring battle.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
Lively owns a 2.51 ERA over his last six starts, while Peralta’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 87.5% of his outings in 2025.
Strong Lean: Ben Lively Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Lively’s hit this over in four of his last five starts and the Brewers’ have been MLB’s worst offense across the past two weeks.
