The Knicks are hosting the Celtics for Game 4 of their second-round playoff series in New York on Monday.
Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 4 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
After blowing 20-point leads in Games 1 and 2, the Celtics dominated in Game 3 with a 22-point win over the Knicks. Following this victory, most bettors are expecting Boston to even this series up at two wins apiece in Game 4. For moneyline bets, 71% of the handle and 67% are on the Celtics. Furthermore, for spread bets, 60% of the handle and 63% are on Boston -6.5. This isn’t a shocker, as the Celtics have been the far superior team over the Knicks this season and Boston easily could be up 3-0 in this best-of-seven.
The Celtics are 5-2 against New York this season and they notably have held a 20-plus point lead in six of these seven matchups. Another factor here is that this is a road game for the Celtics and they been outstanding when away from Boston this season with a 35-9 record, which is tied with the Thunder for the best road record in the NBA. They should have been a near double-digit point favorite for Game 4 and backing them to cover -6.5 is the right move.
For the total, 83% of the handle and 80% of the bets are for over 208 points, which isn’t a surprise in any way. The Celtics and Knicks’ seven matchups this season are averaging 219 points and all but one of these seven games has produced over 208 points. This over is likely to keep moving up with almost all the money and bets on this side, so attacking this over quickly is wise.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-135)
- Derrick White Over 16.5 Points (-115)
- Payton Pritchard 5+ Three Pointers Made (+800)
- Jaylen Brown 1st Points Scorer (+450)
- Jayson Tatum 1st Points Scorer (+600)
Towns for over 11.5 rebounds at -135 is the most-bet player prop for Game 4, a result of this line simply being too low relative to the center’s recent results as Towns has recorded at least 13 rebounds in four straight games. Plus, he has posted 14 or more rebounds in five straight matchups with the Celtics. Barring foul trouble, Towns should see 35-40 minutes in Game 4 and is a strong bet for over 11.5 rebounds with this expected workload.
The second-most bet player prop for Game 4 is White for over 16.5 points at -115, which like Towns’ prop above, is a product of White’s recent play and results against the Knicks. The guard has topped 16.5 points in six of his eight starts this postseason and White has scored 17 points in all but one of his seven matchups against New York this season. Particularly if Kristaps Porzingis continues to come off the bench for Boston, White will be a great investment for over 16.5 points. With Porzingis off the floor this season, White’s usage rate rises 1.4 percentage points to 21.1%.
Next up is Pritchard for 5+ made three pointers, which is a bet that carries long +800 odds. This is pure recency bias, as the guard went 5-for-10 on three pointers in Game 4. That being said, Pritchard is an elite outside shooter who has hit 5+ three pointers in 25% of his games this season, two of which have come against New York. While this is a long-shot bet you shouldn’t be aggressive with, sprinkling on Pritchard for 5+ made three pointers at this excellent +800 price has merit.
The fourth and fifth-most bet player props for Game 4 are Jaylen Brown (+450) and Jayson Tatum (+600) to be the first scorers of the game. While Brown comes with shorter odds for this feat, he is the better option to be the first point scorer and one of the best players in the league to attack in this market. Brown has a tendency of being ultra aggressive right out the gate and he has been the first scorer in 14 of his 71 games this season (19%). In the first minute of games this season, Brown is handling a huge 31.9% usage rate and leads the Celtics with 55 points.
