The Golden State Warriors are in a precarious situation, down 2-1 in their second-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The main issue is that two-time MVP Stephen Curry ($11,200) suffered a hamstring strain in Game 1 and will be re-evaluated prior to Wednesday’s Game 5. Minnesota has won both games that Curry has missed.
Without Curry to contend with, the Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites for Game 4 at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 199.5. Minnesota is -218 on the Moneyline, while Golden State is +180.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two UTIL picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (MIN @ GSW).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jimmy Butler ($15,900 CP) – Of course, you have to consider Anthony Edwards ($17,400 CP) here too, but I ended up going with Butler because of his cheaper salary and more consistent play relative to Edwards. Butler has had a tremendous series so far, averaging 23.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists (45.6 FPTS) per game, and his heroics were the main reason why the Warriors nearly pulled off an upset in Game 3 on Saturday. In that game, Butler had 33 points, seven boards, and seven assists (51.25 FPTS), while taking 26 shots — by far his highest volume since joining Golden State. Among 33 players who have played at least 100 minutes in the conference semifinals so far, Butler ranks seventh in usage rate.
Even though the two defenders who have spent the most time guarding Butler — Edwards and Jaden McDaniels ($11,400 CP) — have both done a good job against him, holding him to a combined three-for-15 shooting this series, his versatility and workload still gives him an edge. He has led the Warriors in minutes, touches, potential assists, and even rebound chances. It’s become increasingly clear that there are only two players on Golden State’s roster who can reliably create shots and make them — Butler and Jonathan Kuminga ($9,900 CP) — and of the two, Butler is the safer option.
Julius Randle ($14,400 CP) – Randle has rehabilitated his playoff reputation dramatically in 2025, as he’s scored 20 points (30 FPTS) in all but two of his postseason games so far. He’s especially shined in the past two games, recording a 24-point, seven-rebound, 11-assist (50.25-FPT) performance in Game 2 and stepping it up another notch in Game 3 with his first career playoff triple-double (24 points, 10 rebounds, 12 assists, 63.5 FPTS). He’s increased his scoring by 3.7 points relative to the regular season after his offensive production and efficiency decreased significantly in each of his first two playoff runs.
Despite the fact that he’s never been an elite playmaker, there are reasons to believe that Randle’s production these past few games is sustainable. Over the past two games, he’s led the Timberwolves in both front-court touches and potential assists per game, and he’s second in rebound chances. He also ranks sixth in usage rate among the 33 players who have played more than 100 minutes in these conference semifinals. If anything, he’s been unlucky not to score more; in this series so far, he’s made only two of his 12 open or wide-open threes.
UTIL Plays
Rudy Gobert ($7,800) – Since the two players I considered as captain are the third- and fourth-most expensive players on the slate, respectively, it’d be nearly impossible to squeeze Edwards in and still have salary left over to fill the roster with players who will actually get minutes tonight, although it’s obviously not unreasonable to consider him as captain instead. But Gobert has the potential to be a high-value option despite his low usage, thanks to his elite defense and rebounding. He hasn’t yet scored double-digit points this series, but a nine-point, 13-rebound, four-block (32.75-FPT) performance like he had in Game 3 will certainly suffice.
Without the spacing that Curry provides, the Warriors don’t shoot enough threes. They attempted just 55 total three-pointers in Games 2 and 3 after averaging 43.1 deep attempts per game during the first round. They’ve compensated by taking 24 restricted-area shots per game, and while that’s not normally a bad offensive strategy — the most efficient shots in the game still come at the rim — it also brings them right into Gobert’s wheelhouse. The shorter the rebound, the more likely the Stifle Tower is to grab it, and the closer the shooter, the more likely he is to rack up blocks.
Jonathan Kuminga ($6,600) – Golden State will have some interesting decisions to make this summer, when the former seventh overall pick becomes a restricted free agent. Given that they are tax-strapped, the Warriors might find it difficult to re-sign him, especially if he continues to produce the way that he did in Game 3: 30 points, six rebounds, three assists, and two blocks (46.5 FPTS). It’s not especially likely that he will — his shooting was relatively unsustainable, given the coverage that he faced — but his high usage should still make him a fantasy asset.
The 22-year-old Congolese forward is a high flyer with supreme confidence, and he posted the team’s second-highest usage rate during the regular season. He wasn’t terrible — 15.3 points and 4.6 rebounds (25.9 FPTS) per game is legitimately decent production — but his isolation-heavy play didn’t jibe well with Steve Kerr’s team-focused system. He fell largely out of the rotation towards the end of the season, but now that Curry is out, Kerr has no choice but to play him, although his leash for mistakes might still be short. Kuminga scored 18 or more points in four of the 10 regular-season games that he played without the star point guard.
Fades
Donte DiVincenzo ($5,000) – DiVincenzo has had a miserable playoff run so far, shooting just 30.1% from the field and 20.8% from beyond the arc in the first eight games. It’s possible that his shooting luck will normalize — like some other slumping players, a lot of his meager production can be tied to an unsustainably low mark on wide-open threes — but the problem for him is that Minnesota doesn’t have the time to let him figure it out. He sat out the entire fourth quarter in Game 5 after a horrible first three frames in which he scored just two points, turned the ball over thrice, and committed four fouls (three FPTS) in 16 minutes. It seems Chris Finch trusts seven players more than he trusts DiVincenzo, so it’s hard to justify spending even 10% of your salary on an eighth man.
THE OUTCOME
Although I am generally a believer in Kuminga, I don’t think it’s incredibly likely that he’s going to score 30 or more points again. The same goes for Butler, even though his 33-point outing was more a product of high usage than of excellent efficiency.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s performance in Game 3 feels pretty sustainable. Naz Reid ($5,200) only scored nine points (16.3 FPTS) in 24 minutes, and Edwards and Randle combined to shoot just six-for-20 from beyond the three-point line. The Timberwolves also didn’t get much offensively out of Gobert and saw several important players get into foul trouble.
They didn’t play very well and still pulled out a victory, and I just have too many questions about the Warriors’ Golden State’s depth and spacing if Buddy Hield ($5,400)‘s shot stops falling.
