Game 3 of this Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights series delivered a down-to-the-wire thrill on Saturday. The Knights fell behind by multiple goals early, then rallied to tie things up before Reilly Smith delivered a game-winning goal with 0.4 seconds remaining in regulation.
Tonight’s Game 4 sees the teams return to the ice in Edmonton at 9:30 p.m. EST. The Oilers look to maintain a two-game lead and push the series to 3-1 with a home win, while the Golden Knights try to knot the matchup at two games apiece if they can steal another one on the road.
Here’s an Oilers vs. Golden Knights prediction and pick for the occasion.
Oilers vs. Golden Knights prediction, pick for Game 4
The Oilers enter Monday night’s Game 4 as -120 favorites on the Moneyline, while they hold +195 odds of covering the -1.5 puck line. The Golden Knights come in at +100 on the Moneyline, while the total sits at 6.5 combined goals, just like last game.
With Edmonton goaltender Calvin Pickard still sidelined with an injury, Stuart Skinner once again takes his spot between the posts tonight. In all honesty, the 26-year-old’s postseason run has been a miserable one — across three starts, Skinner’s GAA remains sky-high at 5.36 while his SV% still falls at a terribly-low .817.
He’s clearly having a rough time, and while the situation isn’t ideal after being benched following two starts in the first round only to re-take the starting spot last game. Still, banking on Skinner to limit an emerging Golden Knights offense probably won’t work out. In Game 3, Skinner saved 20 of 24 shots against for a SV% of .833. Vegas shows signs that they may heat up, having scored four goals in both of their last two games, and while Mark Stone remains day-to-day, Pavel Dorofayev should grow more comfortable in his second game back from injury.
On the opposite side of the rink sits Adin Hill, who himself has struggled a bit this postseason. Hill boasts nine playoff starts to his name thus far with an .872 SV% and 3.14 GAA. Across his last three games against Edmonton, he’s allowed three, five, and four-goal efforts and hasn’t finished a game with better than an .865 SV%. Against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Corey Perry (who netted two goals of his own last game), Hill feels quite vulnerable — yet somehow not to the same extent as Skinner despite facing the most formidable attacking duo in hockey.
Much like in my Game 3 pick and prediction, the over on the 6.5 game total feels like a solid pick tonight. There have been at least six goals scored in all three games of this series. Plus, the last two contests both went over the 6.5 total. With the goalie play, the Oilers’ talented offense, and a potential return to form for Vegas’ attack, it’s hard to see this one going under. I expect plenty of scoring and for the Oilers to win Game 4 in a shootout.
Best bet: Game Total Over 6.5 (-135)
