The Panthers picked up the Game 3 win but are still down 2-1 in the series and will defend home ice tonight in Game 4. The visiting Maple Leafs are +160 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at O/U 6.5 goals, thanks to below-average goaltending from both Sergei Bobrovsky and Joseph Woll, who will be both starting again tonight.
Please read below for my top prediction and pick for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 4 in the second round of the NHL Playoffs.
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Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 4 preview, prediction
All three games have been decided by one goal, so calling this series competitive may be an understatement. Toronto secured wins in both home games but wasn’t able to get the job done on the road in the Game 3 overtime loss. Home-ice advantage has been very real and it should give Florida the edge in intense situations again for tonight’s Game 4 matchup. Both teams tend to get going early, too, with nine first-period goals across the first three games of this series.
These are two of the most potent offenses in the postseason with both teams ranking top six in 5v5 goal percentage and top three in 5v5 goals above expected. Pair that with below-average goaltending from both Bobrovsky and Woll, and you’re going to get some high-scoring matchups. Bobrovsky has been very inconsistent, posting a .840 save percentage and 4.10 GAA this series. Woll hasn’t been much better in place of Anthony Stolarz, posting a .869 save percentage and 3.99 GAA. The series has been physical, resulting in many power play opportunities, but neither team has fully taken advantage of it. Both Florida and Toronto have converted 2-of-9 and 2-of-12 opportunities, respectively.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 4 pick, best bet
The Leafs may have the edge in the series right now but the Panthers have out-chanced them. Those unlucky bounces tend to go your way more often when playing at home, and I’m expecting Florida to even the series before heading back to Toronto for Game 5. Both goaltenders have played poorly, however, so it’s admittedly tough to put my trust in a -190 Moneyline favorite. I doubt the Panthers come out flat, especially when facing a potential 3-1 hole, but I’m rolling with the safe pick tonight. All three goals have been decided by one goal and I’m expecting that trend to continue.
