The Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers will face off in a Game 4 matchup tonight, with the Pacers holding a 2-1 series advantage. Indiana jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, stealing both games in Cleveland. The Cavaliers returned to looking like the dominant team they were in the regular season in the previous game, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and D’Andre Hunter returning to the floor after a Game 2 absence.
Cleveland will look to carry the momentum from their 126-104 Game 4 victory. Donovan Mitchell is coming off back-to-back 43+ point performances, while Tyrese Haliburton followed up his Game 3 dagger with just four points and five assists. Teams that fall into a 3-1 series lead have only come back to win the series just 13 times in NBA history. Cleveland will be looking to avoid this hole and produce the fourth straight road victory in this series.
The Cavaliers enter as 5.5-point favorites and -225 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +185 odds of getting the outright victory, and the over/under for the matchup is set at 231.
The Case for the Cavaliers:
Cleveland led the Eastern Conference from wire-to-wire in the regular season, finishing with a 64-18 overall record. They dominated Miami in the opening round, sweeping the Heat and producing the fourth-largest point differential across a series in NBA history.
It is a results-based league, but Cleveland’s reasons for the losses in the opening two games were pretty clear. They shot just 9-for-38 (23.7%) from beyond the three-point arc in Game 1, while Darius Garland remained out due to his toe injury. Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter joined the All-Star guard on the sideline in Game 2, leaving Cleveland even further shorthanded. Despite this, the Cavaliers led by as many as 20 points in the matchup, but were outscored 36-21 in the fourth quarter, complete with a Tyrese Haliburton dagger to secure the Pacers’ win.
Garland, Mobley, and Hunter returned to the floor in Game 3, and the team looked like the contender they are expected to be. They jumped out to a 66-45 halftime lead and kept their foot on the gas in the second half to ensure they did not make the same mistake.
Desperation has set in for this Cavaliers team, and they will carry this level of effort into today’s matchup. When Cleveland plays their best ball, they are the better team. Donovan Mitchell has consistently looked like a legitimate star and the best player on the floor, even in the losses and considering Haliburton’s play. The bigger question is whether they can do this or if Indiana continues to have success throwing them off their game.
The Case for the Pacers:
The biggest lesson to take from these playoffs is that the teams that never quit are always dangerous. Indiana has been a clear example of this, continuing to fight and hang around before seizing their chance for a victory throughout the opening two rounds.
Inconsistency has always been a problem for Tyrese Haliburton, but it is difficult to imagine he struggles as much as he did in Game 3. The two-time All-Star and last year’s assist champion was limited to four points and five assists, shooting 2-for-8 from the field and attempting just one three-point shot. No member of the Pacers’ starting lineup scored more than 18 points in the loss.
While Cleveland’s bench is still respectable, Indiana has more depth and can play multiple different styles based on the different personnel they have on the floor. The home team has yet to produce a victory in this series, but Indiana was 29-11 at home on the season.
The injury to Damian Lillard cannot be ignored, but Indiana deserves credit for defeating the Bucks in five games in the opening series. Indiana still seems to be viewed with skepticism from a national perspective, but they went to the Eastern Conference Finals just last year and continue to carry a chip on their shoulder. If Haliburton plays to his peak, he can outplay Mitchell, and he has carried himself with a nastiness in these playoffs that is nice to see. The Pacers are loaded with high-level role players who could each step up, and they tend to play better with the home crowd behind them. This series is there for the taking, and it will be a huge missed opportunity if they allow Cleveland to even things up.
The Pick: Cavaliers -5.5
Indiana should not be overlooked, but Cleveland likely got their worst performances out of the way in this series. Donovan Mitchell has proven to be a playoff riser throughout the years and has taken things personally in this series. He has combined for 91 points, 14 assists, and 14 rebounds across the past two games and will be prepared to step to the center stage and be the villain in the enemy arena again today.
Even if the toe issue is still bothering him, Cleveland needs Garland on the floor as a secondary creator, and the offense looked much cleaner in the previous game. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley is also a difference-maker, adding 18 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocks in the previous victory. Cleveland now has the personnel to play their best basketball and should be expected to continue doing so tonight.
Indiana deserves credit for capitalizing on the chance to take a series advantage, but they poked the bear to an extent. Count on another focused effort from the Cavaliers tonight and for the three-pointers to fall at a greater rate than they did to start the series. The blown 20-point lead in Game 2 will remain on their mind, and expect their foot to remain on the gas for all 48 minutes.
The 5.5-point spread feels a bit strong considering these teams are more equal than the 14-game gap that occurred in the regular season. But Cleveland went 52-36-1 against the spread in the regular season and was 23-14 ATS as road favorites. This feels like a series destined to go deep, and I like Cleveland’s chances of avoiding the 3-1 series hole by winning and covering the 5.5-point spread. Expect Donovan Mitchell and company to capitalize as soon as they smell blood in the water and pour on the points as much as possible.
