There’s nothing quite like a true six-pointer at the end of the Premier League season. Chelsea and Newcastle have lots on the line. With three games left, both squads are tied for fourth place at 63 points with identical +21 goal differentials.
Though Liverpool already won the title, Champions League spots are up for grabs. It’s been announced that five total UECL spots will be awarded to the Premier League over the typical four. Here’s how the table looks for teams in Champions League contention:
With Nottingham Forest playing relegation-bound Leicester City tomorrow, any loser in this contest will fall to sixth place with a Forest win. The winner of Newcastle-Chelsea would be in third place and control their fate. A draw would also put both teams in control of their standing. No contest in the remainder of the season will be more critical in deciding the Champions League field.
Newcastle opens as +120 favorites in the contest with the total set at 2.5 goals on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s look at the picks and predictions for this contest.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle predictions, picks
Chelsea Moneyline (+210)
I understand why Newcastle is a solid favorite. They’ve been quite good at home, with an 11-2-4 record, capturing 35 of 51 possible points on their ground. Meanwhile, Chelsea has a pedestrian away record for a top-tier team. They’ve posted a 7-4-6 mark, capturing 25 of 51 points. Despite the identical records and goal differentials, it’s Newcastle’s match to lose.
However, I’m going with the hotter team here. Chelsea has won five straight contests between their Premier League ties and the Conference League. That includes a victory over league-champion Liverpool at full strength. Their star attacker Cole Palmer is rounding into form and the defense has conceded only four goals over those five victories. If the defense holds, their attacking talent should be able to deliver a crucial victory.
Cole Palmer 3+ Shots Attempted (+100)
After taking the Premier League by storm in the early going, Palmer endured one heck of a slump. He went 18 games without scoring a goal. It was jarring after finding the net 15 times across the first 28 contests of the year. His late penalty conversion to put Liverpool to bed may have reignited his confidence.
The slump wasn’t for a lack of trying. Palmer averaged 3.2 shot attempts per contest during this stretch. Newcastle does boast a good defense, but with the stakes as high as they are, Chelsea’s best attacker will go out on his shield with plenty of shot attempts.
