The series outlook for the Golden State Warriors vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves shifted in a major way when Steph Curry suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter of the opening matchup. The 11-time All-Star is set to miss at least a week with this ruling him out through Game 4. But the NBA waits for no man, and the Warriors must buckle up for this Western Conference Semifinal without their best player.
The series is currently tied 1-1 with tonight’s matchup returning to Golden State. The Warriors produced a 99-88 victory in the series opener before the Timberwolves got back on track with a convincing 117-93 win in Game 2.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites and -218 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Warriors hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 200.5 for this matchup.
Here are my favorite prop bets for this Western Conference semifinals series Game 3 battle.
Brandin Podziemski Over 25+ Points, Rebounds & Assists (+145)
The loss of Steph Curry opens the door for production for the rest of the roster, with Brandin Podziemski set to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this. When Jimmy Butler is on the floor without Curry, no other starter has a higher usage rate than Podziemski at 23.2%. He also has logged a 23.6% usage rate across this series. The Santa Clara product has played 31.0 minutes per game after playing 26.8 minutes per game in the regular season.
Across this time on the floor, Podziemski is averaging 7.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists. This comes after a regular season in which he averaged 11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists. He has struggled as a shooter in this series, connecting on just 5-for-16 (31.3%) of his shots from the floor overall. Podziemski is a very good rebounder for his size and will have plenty of opportunities as the Warriors lean more heavily on their small-ball lineups.
The standard prop line for Podziemski’s combined point, rebound and assist total is set at 21.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over favored at -125 odds. While I obviously like this number as well, I think you can push it a bit further for some additional value. Podziemski averaged 14.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists in 33 starts this season and should be in line for an increased opportunity again tonight. He has also shot much better when playing at home this season, connecting on 45.6% of his attempts from the floor and 42.1% from beyond the three-point arc compared to 43.8% on FGA and 33.5% on 3PA on the road.
Count on the 22-year-old to benefit from his additional time on the floor and get some positive shooting regression with the home crowd behind him. Look for the Warriors to lean on him heavily and for Podziemski to impact the game in each category by recording at least 25+ combined points, rebounds and assists as he is relied on at a greater rate tonight.
Jonathan Kuminga Under 14.5 Points (-130)
Another Warriors member who has been itching for an increased opportunity is Jonathan Kuminga. The 22-year-old has seen his role go up and down throughout his tenure with Golden State, and it does not take an advanced eye to notice he is not one of Steve Kerr’s favorites. Kuminga did not see the floor at all in four of the seven games in the series against the Rockets while clocking just 7:21 of game action in Game 7.
Kerr has given Kuminga an opportunity in this series, with him playing 13:10 in Game 1 and 26:23 in the last matchup. He finished with a team-high 18 points on 8-for-11 shooting in Game 2. However, it is worth noting that eight of those points came in the second half while the game was mostly out of reach. While Kuminga possesses the size and athleticism that should help match up with this Timberwolves team, the lack of trust from Kerr is a larger concern than anything in his play. The former seventh overall pick also has the bad habit of getting tunnel vision and not playing within the team as he looks to prove himself.
Expect there to be a short leash for Kuminga tonight, with the margin for error small for Golden State. He has been held to under 14.5 points in 23 of the 47 games he played in the regular season and has only eclipsed this number once in the playoffs. The 72.7% he shot from the floor in the previous game is unsustainable, and I find it unlikely he sees the level of opportunity to reach this scoring figure. Count on his opportunities being limited and him being held under 14.5 points tonight.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
While Julius Randle was looked at as the biggest prize in the blockbuster Karl-Anthony Towns trade before the season, Donte DiVincenzo is much more than just a throw-in. The sixth man has seen his role grow this postseason, logging 30.2 minutes per game over his last five matchups. He has a track record of stepping up in big games dating back to his time in college. Just last season, DiVincenzo proved to be a huge part of the Knicks’ playoff effort, averaging 17.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. The Villanova product connected on 42.5% of his three-point attempts while launching 8.2 long-range shots per game over this stretch.
DiVincenzo has struggled a bit as a shooter to start these playoffs. He is shooting just 30.0% from the floor and 21.7% from beyond the three-point arc in this current playoff run. This comes after a regular season in which he averaged 11.7 points per game and shot 39.7% on three-point attempts. He averaged 2.8 made three-pointers per game and connected on over 2.5 three-pointers in 36 of the 62 games he played.
Perimeter weakness is a concern for the Warriors with Minnesota shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc in Game 2. DiVincenzo shot 3-for-8 in this matchup and should have a clear chance to replicate this tonight. He attempted 27 three-pointers across his past three playoff games and is too good of a shooter for his percentage not to begin returning to the norm. Expect his playoff experience to be called on and for the scrappy guard to be ready to let it fly. Getting +114 odds is great value for DiVincenzo, so count on him playing a key role in the matchup tonight.
