NASCAR Intermediate tracks are in full swing. Kansas Speedway is the second of three 1.5-mile oval races in May. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400 at Kansas.
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Race Winner — AdventHealth 400
Kyle Larson +425
Betting on the favorite hasn’t been a great proposition in the Gen-7 era. The leaders aren’t what they used to be. Parity plagues—or graces, depending on your perspective—the modern era of NASCAR. Kyle Larson best represents this conundrum. His talent and skill justify short odds and confidence. He’s at the top of his game. The problem is the game itself. The rules have leveled the playing field too much. Larson doesn’t have an ace up his sleeve. All 40 cars are playing with the same 52-card deck.
Pick a card. It’s no time to fold. No one can control the cards they’re dealt, but they can count the cards. Randomness exists in nature, but so do probabilities. The data overwhelmingly favors Kyle Larson at Kansas. He’s drawing the right cards and playing the right hands. Last season, he had tire issues and finished 26th. In the six races prior, he earned two wins, two runner-up finishes, a fourth-place finish and an eighth-place finish.
Race Winner — AdventHealth 400
Ross Chastain +2,000
This is the sweet spot. The Stock Car Association is level. Anyone can win on any given race weekend. Small teams are in the hunt, but they’re a reach. They can crack the top-10 but are unlikely to win. The favorites have short odds but lack security. In the middle, the odds and opportunities align perfectly.
Chastain is the defending race winner. He led 52 laps and nailed the final restart to earn his trip to Victory Lane. Chastain has been mastering restarts all season. His retention rate is the best in the Cup Series. Kansas is a wide, high-banked intermediate track that invites drivers to be bold on restarts. No one is more aggressive on restarts than Chastain. Other than pit road, restarts are the best way to make gains in the Gen-7 car. Chastain has four top-10 finishes in the six Gen-7 races at Kansas.
