After a blowout loss in Game 2, the Warriors find themselves in a difficult position. Stephen Curry’s hamstring injury has left Golden State’s offense in flux. Outside of Jimmy Butler, this roster lacks firepower on offense. However, earning a playoff win on the road won’t be easy for Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves. Which squad has the edge going into this Western Conference semifinals matchup?
The Timberwolves enter Saturday as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 200.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down both teams going into this crucial Game 3 showdown.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors preview, prediction
Both games in this series have been uncompetitive, with each team trading commanding victories. However, unlike the Warriors, Minnesota doesn’t have any significant injuries. On paper, that gives the Timberwolves a decisive advantage heading into Saturday’s contest. Still, it’s not as if Golden State has scrubs on the floor. Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are an experienced duo, while sharpshooter Buddy Hield has done his best Curry impression this postseason. Head coach Steve Kerr has plenty of depth to choose from as well, including high-upside forward Jonathan Kuminga.
For the visitors, it’s imperative that Anthony Edwards gets back on track. Over his last three appearances, the guard has averaged 19.3 points on 37.0% shooting (15.0 3PT%). While the Wolves have won two of those contests, having their star play this poorly isn’t sustainable. Fortunately for Minnesota, Julius Randle has stepped up. In Game 2, the power forward dropped 24 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists. A smaller Golden State lineup has also had difficulty scoring against Randle and center Rudy Gobert. When the two are on the floor this series, they’ve recorded a stellar 98.1 defensive rating.
The biggest x-factor in this game, and perhaps this series, is Hield. The Bahamian bomber is always a threat from beyond the arc…but he’s the definition of boom-or-bust. Recently, it’s been much more of the former rather than the latter. Since Game 7 vs. the Rockets, Hield has posted 24.0 points and 4.7 rebounds while shooting 50.0% from the field. During that time, the wing has nailed an eye-popping 64.3% of his three-point attempts.
If (big if) the Warriors get Good Buddy instead of Bad Buddy, this becomes a different game. An otherwise mediocre shooting lineup can create driving lanes for Butler, opening up the entire offense. When Hield scores at least 20 points, Golden State is 12-1 this season.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors pick, best bet
A stingy Timberwolves defense has thrived all year at guarding the perimeter. This season, opponents are shooting just 35.3% from long distance against Minnesota, the fifth-worst rate in basketball. With that being said, Golden State has knocked down a respectable 36.5% of their three-point attempts this series. Anything within that range on Saturday should keep the Warriors in this game down the stretch.
There’s a statistical analysis of this matchup, but there’s also an experience factor. To be fair, the Timberwolves are no strangers to this moment, having reached the Western Conference Finals last season. Still, these are the Warriors we’re talking about. Curry or no Curry, it’s tough to imagine a sloppy performance at home. Minnesota still deserves to be favored, but I’m anticipating a tight, low-scoring affair between these two squads.
