The Seattle Mariners are the MLB’s hottest team over the last month, and with an 18-7 record over their last 25 contests, they enter tonight’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays sporting a massive advantage. Their power-hitting prowess continues to impress with the fourth-most home runs and fifth-most runs scored among all teams to this point. The scariest part? Superstars Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena are only just beginning to break out of their early-season slumps.
As Seattle plays host in this three-game American League matchup, here’s a Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick for Friday’s opening game.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
In tonight’s 9:40 p.m. EST meeting, Luis Castillo takes the mound for the Mariners. With a 3.29 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through seven games, the righty isn’t quite performing up to his typical standard of excellence. Sure, the ERA is fine, but his 3.78 BB/9 and 7.04 K/9 are his worst marks of his career in each category. It’s still very early in the season, though, so there’s plenty of time for Castillo to iron things out and return to form.
The Blue Jays are starting Kevin Gausman tonight, who’s on the other side of the spectrum compared to Castillo. The 13-year veteran’ boasts ‘s 3.83 ERA isn’t spectacular, but he’s struck out 37 batters and walked just 12 across 40 innings of work to start the campaign. Opposing batters are hitting just .182 against him so far, while his 0.93 WHIP is a career-best on an albeit-limited sample.
Gausman’s allowed just four homers so far this season across his 40 innings, so the Mariners might not have an easy time getting ahead early in this contest. Seattle ranks roughly middle-of-the-pack in team batting average at 13th (.247), but they’re second in OBP at .340. Still, offense as a whole might be tough to come by, though, with Gausman also posting a career-best 5.63 H/9 as things stand at the moment.
The Blue Jays should have a slightly easier time producing with their bats thanks to a softer pitching matchup. Toronto’s team batting average is also identical to Seattle’s, and while their team OBP of .315 is good for 14th league-wide, they rank 24th in runs scored. They have a tough time crossing the plate, but might be able to hang around for as long as Gausman remains in the game.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are having excellent seasons thus far with averages of .295 and OBPs of .383 or higher. These guys are the studs in the Jays’ lineup right now, but there just hasn’t been a ton of standout production behind them to this point. If Toronto’s offense could provide some run support, they’d be far better than the 17-20 record they currently hold.
Gausman should keep the Blue Jays in it while he’s pitching, and over 6.5 strikeouts for the righty does look like a solid pick in this matchup at +115 odds.
However, the Mariners’ offense should come alive at some point in this game. Their scoring potential remains high, especially if Arozarena and Rodriguez are beginning to heat up. Of course, Cal Raleigh continues to rake with 12 homers in 134 at-bats, though taking him to record one against Gausman may not be the most appealing line tonight. With all that said, Mariners -1.5 at +150 is another top option (and one I’ll endorse until the team cools off from this scorching streak).
