A massive NL showdown tonight—Mets vs. Cubs at Citi Field. Two division leaders, and potentially another October preview. It’s a Pete Crow-Armstrong (former Mets prospect) revenge series, but it’s not coming at the right time for Chicago. The Mets might be able to bash their way to victory. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Mets and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.86 ERA) has absolutely owned the Mets. His career 4-0 record with a 1.96 ERA in 41.1 innings against them is no fluke. Taillon’s career FIP against the Mets sits at 3.15, showing his ability to generate weak contact and control the game. The Mets haven’t solved Taillon yet, and his ability to neutralize their patient lineup, especially with his 1.03 WHIP this season, makes him the perfect antidote to their approach.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense is a wrecking ball, even after dropping the last two games against San Francisco. They lead MLB with 223 runs scored, sitting first in home runs (55), and third in slugging percentage. Chicago ranks second in the league in wRC+ at 118, signaling their dominance in creating runs. This lineup, anchored by Kyle Tucker (.284, 9 HR, 31 RBI) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.265, 9 HR), can handle any pitcher. Holmes (4-1, 2.95 ERA) is solid, but he hasn’t faced Chicago in a starting role, and with a 4.17 xERA this season, he’s prone to being hit hard if the Cubs jump on him early.
The Cubs’ offense thrives against teams with strong bullpens like the Mets. Chicago is top-tier in OPS with runners in scoring position (.861), so even if Holmes gets through the first few innings, the Cubs’ depth and plate discipline will keep pressure on throughout the game. The Cubs’ walk rate (10.3%) ranks third in the MLB, showing their discipline at the plate, which will tire out any pitching staff, including New York’s. Taillon, meanwhile, will be looking to exploit a Mets lineup that’s striking out 27.4% of the time against right-handed pitchers, ranking them in the bottom-10 in the league for that category.
Cubs vs. Mets pick, best bet
Juan Soto’s .385 OBP and .478 slugging percentage may give the Mets some offensive spark, but his 28.7% K-rate against righties will likely play into Taillon’s hands, as he excels at generating swinging strikes (9.1 K/9 this season). Pete Alonso, though a titanic threat with his .635 slugging and nine HRs, has struggled with pitchers who limit hard contact, and Taillon’s career 2.39 HR/9 against right-handed batters gives him the plus lean here. Francisco Lindor’s .745 OPS against righties and 22.3% K-rate, too—not great. He can reach base, but he won’t easily break through Taillon’s 1.03 WHIP and elite ground-ball rate (47%).
Sure, the Mets have been dominant at home (13-3), but their struggles against Chicago are hard to ignore. The Cubs have won eight of their last nine as road underdogs against NL teams following a loss. Add to that the Mets’ record of failing to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against Chicago after a win. These trends matter to some degree,
Betting insights reinforce this pick. The Cubs have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 road games after a loss, and Taillon’s track record against New York is a huge advantage. The Mets’ bullpen ranks sixth in ERA, but Chicago has the tools to outslug them. Toss in the X-factor of Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose elite defense is more of a play-by-play contributor than you may think behind Taillon, and who might be swinging so hard he’ll barrel a couple this weekend.
Conservative play on Cubs keeping it close and covering their runline, here. But, as a fan, I’m going to sprinkle on the ML, as well.
Best bet: Cubs +1.5 (-165) at Mets
Cubs steal one—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Fan bet: Cubs (+130) at Mets
PCA is The Truth. He’ll remind us of that tonight.
