It has been a thrilling start to the NBA Playoffs, with the best basketball likely still yet to be played. Two more games of action will be on tonight’s Friday night slate in these Game 3 matchups of the second round series.
To start the night in the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers will look to dig out of their 0-2 series hole as the matchup moves to Indiana. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter each missed the previous game due to injury, but there is increased optimism these key players could return tonight. All three were present at this morning’s shootaround are each listed as questionable.
Then, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will face off with the series tied 1-1. This will be the first matchup taking place in Denver after a spirited Game 2 effort from the Thunder to tie things up. Denver will look to wipe away the 149-106 loss in the previous game, but should still feel great about splitting the first two games against the title favorites.
With a pair of Game 3 matchups on the slate, here are my favorite player prop bets for each team in Friday’s matchups.
Donovan Mitchell Over 30.5 Points (-110)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs against the wall far sooner than they expected. They led by as many as 20 points in the previous game and blew a seven-point lead in the final minute, complete with a Tyrese Haliburton game-winning three-pointer to truly put them in desperation mode. With the home crowd set to be against them, it is going to be an all-out effort from Cleveland tonight, and expect Donovan Mitchell to lead the charge.
The series deficit has not been for lack of effort from Mitchell. He dropped 33 points in the series opener and is coming off a 48-point and nine-assist performance in the previous matchup. His usage has been off the charts, launching 30 shots in both games. Mitchell also got to the free-throw line 21 times in the previous game.
While Garland’s return would take some responsibility off his plate, Mitchell will still be at the epicenter of Cleveland’s offensive attack. He has a strong playoff track record that includes averaging as many as 36.3 points per game in a playoff run and has tallied over 30.5 points in 21 playoff games. He also tallied 35 points in one of the two regular-season games with Indiana. Mitchell has been willing to take a backseat for the betterment of the team for stretches all season, but the time for that has passed. Expect a desperate effort from the Cavaliers’ star tonight as he gets up plenty of shot volume and cruises past 30.5 points for the third straight game in this series.
Andrew Nembhard Over 13.5 Points (-115)
Tyrese Haliburton has stepped into the center stage of this series and is carrying a chip on his shoulder following his “overrated” label. But don’t let this overshadow Andrew Nembhard’s impact. After scoring 10.0 points per game in the regular season, Nembhard is averaging 15.9 points per game in this playoff run. He had a similar leap last year, averaging 9.2 points per game in the regular season before dropping 14.9 points per game in last year’s postseason. Nembhard has recorded over 13.5 points in five of the seven playoff games thus far, including dropping 23 points in Game 1.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, there likely will be some adjustments made in the defensive strategy on Tyrese Haliburton. His willingness to differ has been a point of concern throughout his career and could be a factor tonight. Nembhard has not been shy to step up when this occurs, and this should be expected to be the case tonight. The Gonzaga product is a capable catch-and-shoot option with the ability to take opponents off the dribble. He attacks closeouts well and has attempted 10+ shots in all but one postseason game after averaging 8.3 FGA per game in the regular season.
Expect his usage to remain high and for Indiana to need to lean on their secondary scoring options in this must-win game from Cleveland’s perspective. Nembard has played himself into the “playoff riser” category and expect this to carry over tonight. His prop line has increased to 13.5 points, but this still is not high enough to scare me away. Count on the 25-year-old to be ready to step into center stage tonight and continue capitalizing on his increased offensive opportunities by tallying at least 14 points.
Jamal Murray Under 20.5 Points (-115)
Another player in the “playoff riser” category is Jamal Murray, but his outlook is not as bright. It has been an up-and-down season for Murray, with this carrying right into the playoffs. So far in this series, he has produced scoring outputs of 14 and 21 while shooting 10-25 (40%) from the field overall. While he has cleared this number in six of the nine playoff games, Murray has finished with exactly 21 points in three of these efforts.
Oklahoma City’s defense is the biggest factor in this prop, with Lu Dort making his presence felt as the primary defender on Murray. Dort does an excellent job chasing Murray around pick-and-roll opportunities and taking away any easy shot chances. The Thunder ranked third in the NBA in opponents’ points per game and first in defensive rating across the regular season. Their defensive rating has improved in the playoffs, with Oklahoma City continuing to lead the NBA in this category. Including the regular season, Murray has been held to under 20.5 points in three of the five matchups with the Thunder.
Game 1, in which Murray dropped 21 points, was a wake-up call for this Thunder team. If they are going to reach their championship aspirations, it is going to need to start on the defensive end of the floor. Expect a clear focus, with Murray set to be one of the most impacted. Count on Dort hounding him throughout this game, and for Murray to have difficulties creating separation. The 20.5 point line is too high based on the high-intensity environment and defensive effort the Thunder will bring. Expect Murray to be held to less than this for the third time in the past four games.
Lu Dort Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124)
For all that he brings on the defensive end, Dort is still a bit of a work in progress offensively. Denver has revealed that they are more than willing to live and die with what he brings to the table, with Dort seeing nine three-point attempts in each of the first two series matchups. He shot 4-for-9 from deep in Game 1 and 2-for-9 in Game 2.
While he will not be confused for an All-Star level offensive talent, Dort had his best perimeter shooting season of his career, connecting on 41.2% of his three-point shots. The 26-year-old launched 5.8 three-pointers per game in the regular season, with this volume increasing to 6.8 in the playoffs. It must be acknowledged that his three-point percentage has slipped to 29.3% in the postseason, but Dort has connected on four three-point attempts in a game twice. He has attempted at least four three-point attempts in every postseason game.
With plenty of defensive attention set to be on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, count on Dort continuing to benefit from wide-open perimeter looks. While this game being played on the road is worth noting, Dort connected on three three-point attempts in a matchup in Denver in the regular season and also shot 8-for-14 from the perimeter in a regular season matchup with the Nuggets. With Dort set to continue seeing plenty of shot volume and logging major minutes, I love the +124 odds of him connecting with over 2.5 three-pointers again tonight.
