Friday night is a great night for Major League Baseball with all 30 teams taking the field under the lights. It sets up to be a great evening for home runs with some very hittable starters in great hitting environments. Let’s dive into the market on DraftKings Sportsbook and find some home run props to target to get the weekend off to a great start.
By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to cheer for. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Friday, May 9.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Manny Machado to record 1+ home runs (+340)
Machado has hit just three home runs in 36 games this season, which is why this number is so favorable on Friday night at Coors Field. The veteran 3B gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela and has always enjoyed his visits to Coors Field.
On Sunday, Machado hit his third homer of the season off Bailey Falter. He comes into Friday night’s matchup with an eight-game hitting streak, during which he is 13-for-31 (.419) with a 54.5% hard-hit rate, including a pair of barrels.
Machado should be able to keep rolling at Coors Field, where he has hit .306 with 10 home runs in 52 career games. He gets a great matchup against Senzatela, who has given up five home runs in 15 1/3 innings at home this season. Seven of the eight home runs he has allowed on the season have come to right-handed hitters like Machado, and all eight have come in his last five starts.
Machado and Senzatela are both veterans, so they have some history against each other. Machado is 9-for-23 (.391) with a home run in his career against Senzatela. Given how well he has been hitting the ball and how hard Senzatela has been hit, it looks like converging trends are set up for Machado this Friday.
Christian Yelich to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Another proven home run hitter in a good spot is Christian Yelich of the Brewers against the Rays. Yelich has six home runs this season with a 47.3% hard-hit rate. His batting average has been low, but his power has still been consistent. In fact, he’s on pace for more homers this year than last year.
Yelich is in a hitter-friendly environment at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, and he will be facing Zack Littell, who has given up nine home runs in his last five games and 10 in seven starts this season. Littell has struggled with a tendency to give up home runs throughout his career, and this year, it has been lefties like Yelich who have hit him especially hard with four homers and a .350 wOBA.
In his last seven games, he has a 46.2% hard-hit rate and has a good chance to connect on a home run at these odds on Friday night.
Javier Baez to record 1+ home runs (+650)
I’m backing Baez as the extra-spicy pick of the night in my home run props. He and the Tigers are at home against Patrick Corbin and the Rangers. Baez has suddenly re-emerged as a hot option as the Tigers’ primary center fielder. He has gone 16-for-38 (.421) over his last 10 games with three home runs and a 41.4% hard-hit rate, per Statcast.
Baez’ three home runs came in three straight games on the Tigers’ road trip, even before they stopped at Coors Field. While coming back to spacious Comerica Park is a huge park downgrade, that factor is baked into the number here, which pays out at a long-shot +650.
Not only has Baez started hitting everything well over the past couple of weeks, but he also has a good history against Corbin. He is 7-for-23 (.304) against Corbin with a pair of home runs. He is hitting .343 against lefties this season with a .381 wOBA. While it’s a long-shot for sure, I think Baez has a better chance to go yard than this number indicates.
