The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will square off in Game 3 tonight. Jamal Murray and the rest of the Nuggets squad will return to Denver with the series tied 1-1 and looking to take control with the home crowd behind them.
After the Nuggets produced an impressive opening game victory, Oklahoma City answered with a commanding 149-106 win in Game 2. The team that wins the Game 3 matchup of a series goes on to advance 71.4% of the time in NBA history, so this could be a fateful matchup tonight.
The Thunder enter this Game 3 matchup as six-point favorites with -238 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold +195 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 232 points.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Murray prop bets for the Game 3 matchup.
Best Jamal Murray Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jamal Murray’s props are listed at over/under 20.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.5 made three-pointers and 30.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Jamal Murray Under 20.5 Points (-110)
It has been an up-and-down season for Murray, with this carrying into the playoffs. While the Nuggets’ star guard has built a reputation as a playoff riser, the Thunder defense has had something to say about this. Through the first two games of the series, Murray has produced scoring outputs of 14 and 21 while shooting 10-for-25 (40%) from the field overall. While he has recorded over 20.5 points in six of the nine playoff games thus far, he has finished with exactly 21 points in three of these efforts.
Oklahoma City built its identity on the defensive end this season. Across the regular season, it ranked third in opponents’ points per game and led the league in defensive rating. It has continued to lead the NBA in defensive rating throughout the postseason with a variety of high-level defenders to throw at Murray and the rest of this Nuggets team. Most notably, Lu Dort has stepped up as the primary defender on Murray. The scrappy wing does an excellent job navigating the pick-and-roll and taking away easy shots. The nine field goal attempts Murray launched in Game 2 were the second fewest he has ever attempted across his 74 career playoff games. When including the regular season, Murray has been held to under 20.5 points in three of the five matchups against the Thunder.
Murray scored 21 points in the series opener, which was a wake-up call for this Thunder team. If Oklahoma City is to come close to reaching its championship aspirations, it is going to need to start on the defensive end. Expect a clear focus on this with Murray being a defensive priority. Count on Dort to harass Murray throughout the game, and for the Nuggets guard to struggle to create separation. The 20.5 point line is too steep based on this high-intensity environment and the defensive effort the Thunder will bring.
Jamal Murray Over 10.5 Assists & Rebounds (+100)
While scoring will be difficult to come by, don’t expect Murray to be a full non-factor in tonight’s game. The Kentucky product has done a nice job adding layers to his game and becoming a more well-rounded player throughout his time in the NBA. This season, he averaged 6.0 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game, slightly below the 6.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds he produced last season. Through the opening nine games of the postseason, he’s averaging 5.3 assists and 5.2 rebounds. Murray has recorded over 10.5 combined assists and rebounds in five of the nine playoff games thus far.
Murray added six assists and six rebounds in the series opener, but struggled across the board in Game 2. He tallied just one assist, his fewest in a playoff game since 2019, and four rebounds.
Expect Murray to have more success leveraging his defensive attention into playmaking opportunities tonight. His one assist in Game 2 was fewer than any regular-season game this year, so he’s due for some positive regression tonight. In addition, Oklahoma City has made it a clear focus to put multiple bodies on Nikola Jokic following his 22-rebound performance in the series opener. This effort level must continue, so look for Murray to do his part by getting in the mix for rebounding opportunities to combat the attention spent on Jokic.
It may not be the most aesthetically pleasing performance of Murray’s career, but I like his outlook for impacting the game as a playmaker and rebounder tonight. Look for him to record over 10.5 combined assists and rebounds as he did in 28 regular-season games and five playoff games this year.
