The Houston Astros are looking to bounce back at home as they take on the Cincinnati Reds tonight at Daikin Park. Houston, despite their recent offensive struggles, enters as the favorite behind a strong starting pitcher in Hunter Brown. The Reds, who have been on a rough stretch lately, will try to turn things around with Nick Martinez on the mound. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Astros and the Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Astros vs. Reds prediction, preview
Cincinnati has struggled recently, losing four of their last five games. Their offense, though ranked 10th in runs scored, has been inconsistent. Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl provide flickers of offensive spark, but the Reds have choked in key moments. Cincinnati’s .242 team batting average shows their difficulty against high-caliber pitching, especially when compared to their .309 team OBP. They rank 26th in MLB for slugging percentage, suggesting they have issues generating consistent power. Their offense, despite flashes, has struggled with discipline—ranking 28th in K% (8.8 strikeouts per game) and 23rd in walk rate (8.0%). These trends make it difficult to capitalize against a top-tier pitching staff.
Speaking of top tier, here’s Hunter Brown’s line so far in 2025: 1.67 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 43 innings. He ranks in the 94th percentile for hard-hit rate allowed, with a mere 5.7% barrel rate against him, showing his ability to minimize damage. Brown’s 9.4 K/9 ranks fourth in MLB, and his ability to generate strikeouts while limiting walks (2.1 BB/9) makes him a near-insurmountable matchup for Cincinnati’s volatile lineup.
The Reds are sending Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.19 ERA) to the mound. While he’s posted back-to-back quality starts, those have come against weaker opposition. Martinez has allowed a .239 career BAA against the Astros, and with Houston’s discipline, his command will be tested. Martinez’s 4.19 ERA is complemented by a 1.24 WHIP, indicating his struggles with base runners. Against an Astros lineup that ranks seventh in OBP at .325, Martinez will need pinpoint accuracy to avoid trouble. His low strikeout rate (6.6 K/9) means the Astros, who strike out just 7.8 times per game (sixth-lowest), are more likely to put pressure on him early.
On the flip side, Houston is coming off a commanding 9-1 win over the Brewers. Their offense, despite some struggles, remains potent. Jake Meyers has been hot, slashing .364 over his last 10 games, and Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with five home runs and 16 RBIs. That’s given Houston some much-needed-but-still-not-enough pop with the departures of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, and Yordon Alvarez on the shelf. Jose Altuve’s plate discipline—his .363 OBP and 8.1% BB rate—sets the tone, forcing pitchers like Martinez to work deeper into counts, playing into Houston’s strength. Altuve’s ability to capitalize on walks could push Martinez into a tight spot quickly.
Reds vs. Astros pick, best bet
Houston’s pitching has been top-to-bottom stellar. With a 3.36 team ERA (fifth in MLB), they can afford to lean on Hunter Brown, who has been dominant this season, but the bullpen depth remains one of their strongest assets. The Astros’ pitchers average 10.4 K/9, fourth in MLB; they have the serious firepower to keep Cincinnati’s inconsistent offense in check. Houston’s arms force a .216 opponent batting average, too. That’s second in MLB—even if Martinez keeps the game close early, the Astros’ staff can shut down any Reds momentum.
Despite Cincinnati’s solid 3.59 ERA (ninth in MLB), their pitching has allowed 47 home runs, ranking 23rd in the league. This plays right into Houston’s wheelhouse. The Astros rank fifth in MLB for home runs (31), and their power hitters like Pena and Alvarez (when healthy) are poised to capitalize on Martinez’s vulnerability to the long ball. Martinez’s ability to limit hard contact will be key—yet Houston’s lineup has been known to punish pitchers in favorable matchups.
While the Reds’ pitchers have been solid, their offense has shown too many holes, particularly against a well-rounded Astros team. Expect Houston to dominate both on the mound and at the plate.
Best bet: Houston -1.5 (+110) vs Reds
Houston dominates—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
