It’s a fun one at Progressive Field tonight: the 22-15 Philadelphia Phillies look to extend their recent dominance as they take on the 22-15 Cleveland Guardians in a much-ballyhooed interleague clash to begin the weekend series. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Guardians and the Phillies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Guardians vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Aaron Nola (1-5, 4.61 ERA) looks to build on his recent stretch of strong performances, while Gavin Williams (2-2, 5.06 ERA) tries to bounce back after some shaky starts. Both teams have momentum, but the Phillies’ lineup—powered by the scorching hot Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber—looks poised to exploit Williams’ inconsistency.
Nola’s recent form offers a glimpse of what we can expect tonight: his last two starts have been stellar, with 13 scoreless innings and just seven hits allowed. The Guardians’ offense, however, has had difficulty against pitchers who can limit hard contact, and Williams is prone to exactly that. With a high WHIP (1.75) and K/BB ratio of just 1.9, Williams has allowed multiple base runners in nearly every start this season. The Phillies’ aggressive offense, ranking 10th in MLB for runs scored (181), will likely take full advantage of his inability to keep runners off the bases. Nola’s strikeout potential—he’s at 9.9 K/9 this year—also gives him a huge edge against Cleveland’s strikeout-prone lineup, which is fanning at 8.4 K/9.
Philadelphia’s offense is back in playoff form, clicking on all fronts. The Phillies rank 10th in runs scored and have pounded 55 home runs this season, with Schwarber leading the charge (12 HRs, 28 RBI). Their ability to generate offense in bunches is a concern for Williams, who has allowed 37 hits and 19 walks in just 32 innings. The Guardians have been solid at home, but they rank just 16th in runs scored, encountering inconsistency, particularly in the power department (42 HRs). Cleveland’s offense can be feast or famine, and against a top-tier pitcher like Nola, it’s going to be hard for them to sustain pressure without timely hitting.
Phillies vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Betting support the Phillies tonight. They’ve won eight of their last 10 and are a solid 9-2 in their last 11 games when playing as favorites. The Guardians, on the other hand, have had a tough time as underdogs against strong teams, winning just 47.6% of games when listed as the underdog this season. The Phillies have also covered the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites; they can win in close contests, just like last night.
We’re grabbing the cheap price on the Phillies ML, here. The edge in starting pitching, coupled with a deep and explosive lineup, makes the Phillies the smart pick here. Nola’s resurgence and the Guardians’ inability to contain high-powered offenses set up Philly for a strong start to the series. The total is set at 8, but I’m locking in the Phillies to pull away and cover tonight.
You just don’t bet against this era of the Fightin’ Phils when they’re hot. I’ve said it before.
Best bet: Phillies (-125) at Guardians
Friday Night Nola game!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
