After a shocking defeat in Game 1, the Thunder came to play on Wednesday. Oklahoma City dominated Denver, winning by a score of 149-106 to even up its series at one game apiece. Now, the Nuggets will hope to respond in front of their home crowd. What can fans expect tonight in this NBA playoffs matchup?
The Thunder enter Friday as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 232.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down both teams going into this crucial Game 3 showdown.
Nuggets vs. Thunder preview, prediction
In many ways, the Thunder have to be kicking themselves. If not for a pair of missed free throws and some questionable coaching decisions, Oklahoma City would hold a commanding 2-0 series lead. Still, Wednesday’s blowout was a reminder of how good OKC can be when firing on all cylinders. The Thunder will hope to carry that momentum into a hostile road environment tonight.
For the Nuggets, it’s also a bit of a mixed bag. Stealing one game on the road has shifted home court advantage in Denver’s favor. However, getting destroyed in Game 2 can’t be good for morale. Fortunately, Nikola Jokic and company are an experienced group; one bad loss shouldn’t have a major impact. The bigger issue is the talent disparity between these two rosters. On paper, depth is a decisive advantage for the Thunder in this series. If OKC gets Jokic in foul trouble, as was the case on Wednesday, the Nuggets have no answers.
There are several reasons for Denver’s embarrassing loss earlier this week. The Thunder were able to harass every player on the opposition, including Jokic (six TOs), leading to a +11 turnover margin. Defense was an even bigger issue for the Nuggets, as has been the case all season. Oklahoma City’s 87 first-half points set a new NBA postseason record, effectively putting this game out of reach before the third quarter. Leading the way was MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who notched his second straight 30-point game in this series.
If the Nuggets have any shot at taking tonight’s contest, they’ll need a better effort on both ends of the floor. Fortunately for Denver, it’s almost blasphemous to think that Jokic will struggle two games in a row. Over his last five appearances vs. Oklahoma City, the three-time MVP has averaged 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds and 9.0 assists. Still, the center will need to produce against one of the NBA’s top defensive units; easier said than done.
Nuggets vs. Thunder pick, best bet
It’s impossible not to anticipate another Nikola Jokic masterpiece tonight. It was only four days ago when the Serbian delivered a phenomenal 42-point, 22-rebound, six-assist performance. The question will be whether The Joker’s teammates step up; history tells us yes (on offense). Denver ranks fourth in basketball with 122.2 points per game at home. However, the Thunder have the fifth-most points on the road this season (117.2).
These two clubs have combined for at least 240 points in four of their five meetings this season. At home, a better showing from the Nuggets is almost guaranteed. Based off of Game 2, the Thunder can play terrific defense and still find a way to clear the over. Keeping that in mind, expect another shootout in the Western Conference semifinals.
