The Timberwolves are hosting the Warriors for Game 2 of their second round series in Minnesota on Thursday.
Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
The Warriors won Game 1 in Minnesota 99-88 despite Stephen Curry (hamstring) getting hurt and only playing 12.5 minutes. The former MVP will be out for Game 2 and for moneyline bets for this contest, 65% of the handle is on the Timberwolves. That being said, it is an even 50/50 split in terms of the amount of moneyline bets on both the Warriors and Timberowolves. With most of the money on Minnesota, this shows us that the big bettors are expecting the Timberwolves to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series at one win apiece.
For the spread, 82% of the handle and 38% of the bets are on the Timberwolves -10.5, while 18% of the handle and 62% of the bets are on the Warriors +10.5. Again, this shows us that the big bettors are expecting Minnesota to cover this 10.5-point spread. While backing the Timberwolves to win on their home-floor on the moneyline against the Curry-less Warriors is logical, 10.5 points is a big line to cover and most of the money being on Minnesota -10.5 is somewhat surprising after the Warriors handled them rather easily in Game 1. Furthermore, Minnesota is 16-23 ATS as a home favorite this season, while the Warriors are 13-8 ATS as an away underdog. In this situation, fading the sharp money and backing Golden State at +10.5 makes a ton of sense.
The total for this game is at a very low 201 points and as expected with this number so low, 75% of the handle and 74% of the bets are for the over. However, there is certainly merit in going with the under here. Game 1 only produced 187 points and Game 2 should be another defensive battle. Both the Timberwolves and Warriors are top-seven in defensive rating this season and Curry being sidelined effects this game’s scoring in two different ways. First off, Golden State’s offense obviously takes a massive hit with the sharpshooter missing. Additionally, Curry’s absence lifts the Warriors’ defense from being great to truly elite. With the guard off the floor this season, Golden State’s defensive rating is 103.2, which would easily be the defensive rating in the league if it was their average for the season. Both the Warriors and Timberwolves scoring under 100 points again is very possible and taking under 201 points is a sharp call.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Naz Reid Over 12.5 Points (-115)
- Anthony Edwards 25+ Points (-225)
- Draymond Green 8+ Assists (+425)
- Anthony Edwards Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
- Brandin Podziemski 6+ Three Pointers Made (+2500)
Reid for over 12.5 points at -115 is the most bet player prop for Game 2 after the big man scored 19 points against the Warriors in Game 1. Reid has now scored 15+ points in three straight games against Golden State and in Game 1, he logged 33.4 minutes off the bench and closed the contest with the Timberwolves’ starters instead of Rudy Gobert. With the Warriors being a smaller team that doesn’t use a natural center often, this is a much better matchup for Reid than Gobert, as Reid is a faster center who can stretch the floor, while Gobert is an old-school center who only operates in the paint. Given this, Reid should continue to see around 30 minutes in Game 2, making him a strong bet for over 12.5 points. The last five times Reid has logged at least 25 minutes, he is averaging 15 PPG.
Edwards for 25+ points at a heavily favorited -225 price is the second-most bet player prop for Game 2. At these unappealing odds, this is a bet to avoid against this elite Warriors defense. Edwards was held to only 23 points in Game 1 and he has failed to reach 25 points in three of his six matchups with Golden State this season.
Next up is Green for 8+ assists at +425 odds. As reflected in these odds, this is a longshot bet. The idea is that with Curry out, Green will be more of a playmaker, but that hasn’t been the case this season. In the eight starts Green has made without Curry this season, he is only averaging 4.8 assists per game. In this low 201-point total, this prop bet isn’t worth considering.
Edwards is the fourth-most bet player prop for Game 2, this time for the wing for over 12.5 RA. With Edwards likely to play huge minutes in this must-win for the Timberwolves, this over is very viable. Edwards is logging 41.2 minutes per game this postseason and with this huge volume, he is averaging 9.3 rebounds and 5.5 rebounds per game, and he has exceeded 12.5 RA in five of six games.
Lastly, Podizemski for 6+ made three pointers at +2500 is the fifth-most bet player prop Thursday. The logic here is that with Curry out, Podizemski will take on a bigger workload as a scorer, which is likely, but that doesn’t mean he has any chance of hitting 6+ three pointers. Podizemsiki is only averaging 2.4 made three pointers per game with Curry out this season (10 games) and this is a terrible matchup for outside shooting, as the Timberwolves are limiting their opponents to the fifth-fewest made three pointers this season. While these +2500 odds are mouthwatering, this is a sucker bet and a wager to disregard for Game 2.
