Today’s featured MLB slate on DraftKings is split into an earlier and a late slate, with a four-game 1 p.m. slate and a four-game 7 p.m. slate. The 7 p.m. slate has a prize pool $25,000 larger, so I’m going to be focused on that one today, although you can find the early slate here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (Early).
With plenty of stars on the late slate, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,000), you’ll need to find cheaper options to pair him with if you want to fit him in your lineup. Here are my three favorite value options for tonight’s contest.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st].
SP José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $6,000
Soriano is the cheapest pitcher on tonight’s slate, since he’s been a model of inconsistency all season. But inconsistent doesn’t necessarily mean bad; he’s had three quality starts from the seven times he’s crested the hill. Last Friday, he took the mound against the Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, and out-dueled him, pitching six scoreless innings (19.3 FPTS) before a bullpen implosion robbed him of a well-deserved win. He combines well-above-average velocity with decent control — he issues walks at about a league-average rate — so it makes sense why he has shown quality at times.
Soriano does give up plenty of hard hits — he ranks basically in the bottom quartile in both hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, per Statcast. But this season, Toronto hasn’t recorded many hard hits, as they rank dead last in the league in home runs and fourth-to-last in slugging percentage despite hitting for a decent average. Also, while the Blue Jays don’t naturally hit a lot of grounders, Soriano is elite at inducing them, so they’re a good bet not to hit any home runs even in a venue that’s the league’s fifth-friendliest to opposing sluggers.
2B Hyeseong Kim, Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, $2,500
Los Angeles’ marquee Asian acquisition during the offseason was starting pitcher Roki Sasaki, one of the best pitching prospects in Japanese history, but Kim caught the eye of Dodgers scouts with an illustrious career in the Korean Baseball Organization league (KBO). Over seven seasons with his hometown Kiwoom Heroes, he slashed .304/.364/.403 with 211 stolen bases in 953 games. Although Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts indicated that the plan for Kim was to mostly develop in the minor leagues in his first season stateside, he has already discussed nixing that plan, given how good Kim has looked so far in the big leagues: .417/.417/.417 with three runs, two RBI’s, and two stolen bases in five games.
Of course, it’s extremely early, but the underlying metrics look good: he’d be near the top of the major leagues in expected batting average, squared-up percentage, launch-angle sweet spot percentage, and strikeout percentage if he’d had enough at-bats to qualify. The value of a left-handed speedster who makes consistent contact, even if he doesn’t have much power, is nearly infinite, especially since the Dodgers can hit Kim ninth to give Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) a baserunner to drive in. As long as he stays up with the big club, Kim’s DFS salary is going to rise, so get him now while he’s still cheap. Plus, Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt ($8,000) is a contact hitter’s dream, given that he sports a sixth-percentile expected batting average and a 32nd-percentile fastball velocity.
OF Max Kepler, Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, $4,100
Overall, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has been pretty good this season, allowing the ninth-lowest WHIP. The problem is, when opponents have gotten hits, they’ve hit it hard; the Rays rank dead last in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, and fourth-to-last in home run percentage. Ryan Pepiot ($6,300), who will crest the hill for Tampa Bay today, is a major part of that problem — he’s allowed eight home runs, the fourth-most in the American League, and ranks in just the fifth percentile in overall pitching run value. He’s given up an expected wOBA of .444 on his fastball, which isn’t exactly ideal.
Kepler doesn’t quite have the power-hitting reputation of his outfield partners, Kyle Schwarber ($5,600) and Nick Castellanos ($4,400), but the southpaw can rake too. Although he’s gone just one-for-eight in the first two games of this series, he’s coming off a recent stretch in which he had three home runs in four games (14 FPTS per game across that stretch). Kepler’s metrics are still elite: a 50.0% hard-hit percentage that ranks in the 84th percentile, a 29.5% squared-up percentage that ranks in the 78th percentile, and a tendency to hit pulled fly balls. The latter is an asset at Steinbrenner Field — the New York Yankees’ minor-league facility where the Rays are playing this season — given that it has identical dimensions to that of Yankee Stadium, the fourth-most homer-friendly park for southpaws.
