The Knicks have shockingly snatched both games away from the Celtics in Boston. They now lead the series 2-0, heading to Madison Square Garden. But can New York really hold on and dethrone the reigning NBA Champions?
Let’s break it down.
Celtics vs. Knicks Series Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Celtics are still -120 to win the series at DraftKings Sportsbook, despite being down 2-0 heading to New York. The Celtics were massive initial favorites to win this series. Before Game 1, they were -800 favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, and they were -145 to win the series in five games or fewer.
They will not be winning the series in five games or fewer, as the Knicks have already stolen the first two games. However, oddsmakers still think that the Celtics have a slight edge to win the series. The Celtics swept the regular season series against New York, and the oddsmakers expect them to find that form once again and come back. If the Knicks can just take one of the games at Madison Square Garden, they will lead 3-1 heading back to Boston. That means they would need to just win one of the final three games, one of those coming at home.
The public, bigger bettors included, still believe heavily in Boston. Since the Knicks took a 2-0 lead on Wednesday night, the public has been betting heavily on the Celtics’ series price. Since the game went final, 74% of the bets and 95% of the handle are on the Celtics to win the series. Most bettors are trying to buy low on the defending champions, expecting them to improve their shooting going forward. The Knicks’ defense deserves a ton of credit, and Jalen Brunson has been the killer down the stretch between the two teams. That being said, the Celtics are due for a game where they make a lot of shots, and it will be hard for the Knicks to keep up if they do that. The real question is, will that good shooting game be the outlier for the Celtics or, once they find that form, can they keep it going through the rest of the series?
The first two games have followed a nearly identical script, with the Celtics taking massive leads but getting dominated in the fourth quarter. Both teams have been poor offensively so far, but the Knicks, mainly Jalen Brunson, have hit the big shots down the stretch that have made the difference between winning and losing. The Celtics have set a record for the most missed three-pointers through the first two games of a playoff series. Despite that bad shooting, they have still been able to dominate for long stretches of both games. If they can just sustain those runs over four quarters, they are still clearly the better team and would have a great chance to win four of the next six games.
The one thing that has been lost in the discourse is that the Knicks have been bad offensively as well. They have not hit a lot of shots from beyond the arc, and their stars have not been amazing. Jalen Brunson won the game in the fourth quarter for the Knicks in Game 2, but prior to that, he was not having a great showing. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns was terrible in Game 1 of the series. The Knicks have not played anywhere near their peak, either, and still won both games. So, if they can reach another level and prevent the Celtics from hitting their stride, there is no reason they couldn’t keep winning games.
With a 2-0 advantage to New York, this series is now a true coin flip. The Celtics are the better team, but they could be mentally rattled after the endings of the past two games. The Knicks just need to split the two games in New York to have firm control over the series heading back to Boston for Game 5. Of course, New York would prefer to win their two home games and sweep the Celtics, but it’s hard to imagine the Celtics not getting hot in one of those games and taking it. At this point, there is a bit of value on the Knicks at +100 to win the series, but it could really go either way as the teams head to New York.
