There might not be a better representation of how mid the entire American League has been to start 2025 than a matchup between the Rangers and the Red Sox — both of whom were many people’s “dark horse” pick to make the World Series six weeks ago.
Technically, after a 6-1 victory to begin this series on Tuesday, Texas comes into tonight’s action on a winning streak. However, this is still a team that’s lost 9 of its last 13 games to sit at exactly .500 in the AL West. Meanwhile, Boston has dipped back below .500 thanks to some bullpen nightmares and dropping five of its last six contests.
Who will take a step in the right direction this evening? Let’s break it all down with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The only place to begin with a preview for this contest is with Tyler Mahle. It feels like 100 years ago, but Mahle was the hard-throwing, young ace of the Reds with major fantasy upside as recently as 2021. However, injuries have taken their toll in recent seasons, as the right-hander was limited to only 38.1 total innings across 2023 and 2024. It’s safe to say he was an afterthought to most heading into 2025, yet Mahle’s actually been one of the best stories in baseball to this point in the calendar.
In seven starts, Mahle possesses a 1.19 ERA and a 2.50 FIP, with both figures sitting inside the 10 best qualified marks in MLB entering play on Wednesday. The 30-year-old’s .230 BABIP and 86.5% strand rate are definitely unsustainable, and at some point Mahle is bound to give up his first home run of 2025, but the veteran has been legitimately great at suppressing dangerous opponent contact. To wit, Mahle ranks in the 77th percentile or better in average exit velocity (87.6), barrel rate (5.0%) and hard hit rate (32.0%). This hot beginning to the season is more than a few lucky bounces — Mahle’s been really good.
On the other side of the spectrum, we find Tanner Houck. In the case of the former All-Star, I think Houck’s surface numbers so far this season are deceptive in how terrible they are, completely dragged down by a single outing where the right-hander surrendered 11 earned runs in 2.1 innings versus the Rays in the minor league park. In the three starts Houck’s made since that dreadful night, he’s limited opponents to a .227/.278/.364 slash line with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.3 K/BB ratio. Don’t let one huge blemish ruin your view of Houck. He remains a solid MLB pitcher.
Rangers vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
While the Rangers were able to score some early runs off Lucas Giolito on Tuesday, this is not a lineup that’s been producing all the well in recent weeks. The return of Corey Seager certainly helps, and Evan Carter looked good in his first taste of MLB action in a long time, but Texas owns an AL-worst .085 ISO across the past 14 days. In that same span, the Rangers have mustered just an 85 wRC+.
Don’t be fooled by Houck’s season-long stats, he’s been pitching well as of late. He and Mahle should be able to do enough to keep this contest relatively low-scoring.
Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-118)
Houck’s better than you think and the Rangers’ bats have struggled in recent weeks.
Strong Lean: Jonah Heim 2+ Total Bases (+150)
When Houck has had his issues in 2025, it’s been with LHBs. Meanwhile, Heim is 4-for-7 in his career against the RHP with three home runs.
