The Bronx Bombers sure showed up last night, when the hung 12 runs on these San Diego Padres. The Dylan Cease of old would be ready to take the mound tonight in New York and get the Padres back to the win column, but this might be a case where the more obvious momentum wins out. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wendesday night baseball game between the Yankees and the Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Padres prediction, preview
The Padres went into last night’s game on the heels of a six-game win streak, but they then bled through a disheartening 12-3 loss to the Yankees. Despite their recent success, San Diego’s offensive struggles remain a concern. They rank 20th in runs scored (4.0 per game) and 24th in home runs (29) this season. Dylan Cease, slated to take the mound for the Padres, has been inconsistent. Though he’s posted a respectable 5.61 ERA over seven starts, he’s yet to last more than 4.2 innings in his last three outings. Cease’s propensity for giving up walks—11% in his career when facing a lineup for the second time—could come back to bite him tonight against a potent Yankees offense.
Chalk offensive superstars like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado will need to step up—be chalkier, per se—for San Diego. Tatis leads the team with eight home runs and 19 RBIs, while Machado, despite a slow start, is on a seven-game hitting streak with five RBIs. However, the Padres’ struggles against left-handed pitchers are well-documented, as they’ve posted a .259 batting average against southpaws this season, well below the league average. That’s a bamboozling reverse split.
New York, on the other hand, seems to have found their rhythm again. After a dominant 12-run eruption in yesterday’s game, the Yankees remain a juggernaut offensively, ranking second in runs scored (5.6 per game) and leading the majors in home runs (60). Max Fried, their ace, has been nothing short of dominant, boasting a 1.01 ERA in his seven starts this season. With Fried on the mound, New York has won every game, and his ability to generate ground balls at an exceptional rate (62% with two strikes) should keep the Padres’ offense at bay.
Padres vs. Yankees pick, best bet
The Yankees’ lineup continues to shine, particularly Aaron Judge, who leads the team in homers (12) and RBIs (34). His .412 batting average further bludgeons home the damage he’s been doing. Judge’s power has been crucial, but the Yankees also benefit from vets like Paul Goldschmidt (.351, three HRs, 17 RBI) and surprises like Ben Rice (.264, eight HRs), who have been bloating scoresheets of their own. The Padres, on the other hand, have struggled against left-handed pitching recently, posting a below-average .259/.327/.387 slash line for the season. With Fried commanding the mound, it’s hard to see San Diego having much success here. Certainly harder to see them having more success than the Yanks.
Cease’s inability to go deep into games only magnifies San Diego’s reliance on their bullpen, which has been stellar this season but may not be able to shut down the Yankees for a full nine innings. The Yankees, with their explosive offense and dominant ace, are likely to control this one.
Betting trends also favor the Yankees in this spot: they’ve won four of their last five night games following a home win and have covered the run line in three of their last four games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Padres have struggled in interleague matchups, with just a 5-10 record against American League teams in their last 15 games.
Given the Yankees’ power, Fried’s dominance, and the Padres’ struggles against lefties, it’s tough to go against New York in this one.
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+115) vs. Padres
Fried rules—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
