We’ve had six NBA Playoff games since Sunday evening leading into Wednesday’s slate, with the underdog coming out victorious in each of those games. Five of the dogs were priced as seven-point dogs or longer, and for the first time in NBA history, all four road teams winning Game 1 of the Conference Semifinals. We’re in an absolute bonkers stage of the NBA Playoffs right now, but I’m confident in the Celtics restoring order on Wednesday night in Game 2 at TD Garden.
I’m backing the C’s a handful of ways, both in Game 2 and for the series. Let’s breakdown the bets below.
Prior to completely breaking down in the middle of the third quarter of Game 1, the Celtics’ offense has been a hot knife through butter against New York’s defense this season. The Celts put up 61 points in the first half on Monday night, and in the four regular season matchups against the Knicks, landed on first half outputs of 52, 64, 61 and 72. That’s good for an average of 62.4 points per first half in five total outings this season, with a 4-1 mark to the over on Wednesday’s number of 57.5.
Factor in the desperation angle with the Celtics off a bad loss, that involved historically poor shooting, and I think we can count on the Celtics to come out playing with a purpose offensively in Game 2.
Game 2 Pick: Celtics 1H Team Total OVER 57.5 (-105) 1.5-units
Taking a similar angle here in terms of the analysis, just on a different bet. I like the Celtics to come out aggressive early, and after blowing a 20-point lead in Game 1, I expect them to hang onto that lead and close this game out. That plays perfectly to the Halftime/Fulltime double result, but that’s a juicy play on its own.
So I’ll add in Jayson Tatum to go for 25-plus points to get the play to plus money. After scoring 13 points in the first quarter on Monday, Tatum went ice cold, finishing 7-of-23 from the field and missing a couple of free throws. Despite the struggles, Tatum still finished with 23 points. I expect him to be ultra-aggressive in this game, as well as sharper from the field.
Game 2 SGP: Celtics HT/FG + Tatum 25+ Points (+105) 1.5-units
Prior to the series, I laid -2.5 games with the Celtics to win in five or less. While I still think the Celtics can rip off four in a row and cash the initial series spread, I’ll get back involved and lay -1.5 games to close the series out in six or less. Boston’s in a terrific spot to even the series on Wednesday, and this team has been nails on the road all season. Expect the C’s to thrive at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks just went 1-2 against the Pistons in the first round.
Series Spread: Celtics -1.5 Games (-105) 2-units
I used this play in my article on Tuesday, but given the state of the Timberwolves vs. Warriors series, I’ll re-invest. It’s one of those extremely rare situations where Minnesota lost Game 1 at home, and are now even bigger favorites for the series. The reason? Stephen Curry is going to be out until at least Game 5 with a hamstring injury, and likely longer. There’s a realistic chance we do not see Curry in this series again. The Wolves, who ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season, are shooting 15% from downtown over their last two games. Expect some regression from downtown, and the Warriors to struggle to keep up without Curry. Pairing the Celtics and Wolves to win their series’ is plus money.
Series Parlay: Timberwolves/Celtics (+101) 1-unit
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